Rupi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi ve dolar\u0131n ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 zay\u0131f kapatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,25\u2019e geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla 7.500 rupi seviyesine y\u00fckseldi; bu t\u00fcr hareketler genellikle petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131n seyrini izleyerek 99,70 civar\u0131nda %0,1 y\u00fckselirken, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki seyr\u00fcsefer belirsizli\u011fi ham petrol\u00fc destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler, zay\u0131flayan istihdam verileri ve de\u011fi\u015fen faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 kayd\u0131. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %46\u2019ya geriledi (bir hafta \u00f6nce %67 idi); temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 23 binlik istihdam kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, haziran verisi 57 binden 20 bine revize edildi. Dolar\u0131n \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc DXY\u2019yi yakla\u015f\u0131k sekiz haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 99,40\u2019a indirirken, USD\/INR 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 95,53\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI 45 civar\u0131nda seyrederken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc izlenen seviyeler 94,83 ve 94,15 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, 19 A\u011fustos\u2019ta vadesi dolacak MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131na veya bull call spread stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksama nedeniyle jeopolitik gerilim artarken, enerji vadeli i\u015flemlerinin 7.500 rupi seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015farak daha y\u00fcksek diren\u00e7leri test etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 ani arz \u015foklar\u0131, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde %5 ila %8 aras\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
USD\/INR paritesi i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 94,83 destek seviyesini hedefleyerek bear call spread kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 veya put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 genel olarak Hindistan Rupisi\u2019ni zay\u0131flatma e\u011filiminde olsa da, parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131 olan 95,53\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu teknik diren\u00e7 ve 45 seviyesindeki zay\u0131f G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos sonundaki seanslara yakla\u015f\u0131rken daha zay\u0131f bir ABD dolar\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 da tavsiye ediyoruz. Son ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu 23 bin ki\u015filik beklenmedik bir istihdam kayb\u0131 g\u00f6stererek piyasada Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin %46\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki bu sert yava\u015flama, yak\u0131n vadede dolar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli yapmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeden \u00f6nce mevcut yatay bant momentumundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in iron condor gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USD\/INR 95,53 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131k\u00e7a veya haziran dip seviyesi olan 94,15\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkmad\u0131k\u00e7a agresif y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmal\u0131. Pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutulmas\u0131, petrol kaynakl\u0131 ani oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol 7.500 rupiye t\u0131rmand\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131 destekledi: Rupi zay\u0131flad\u0131, USD\/INR 95,25\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %46\u2019ya indi; opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t