WTI, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde toparlanarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 79,40 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti. \u00d6nceki seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5\u2019lik kay\u0131p ya\u015fayan fiyatlar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fimlere ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin s\u00fcrmesiyle destek buldu. \u0130ran, g\u00fcvenli bir deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 koridoruna ili\u015fkin Umman ile hafta sonu yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, herhangi bir d\u00fczenlemenin bo\u011faz\u0131n derhal yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmeyece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u00d6te yandan, Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Cizan rafinerisini hedef ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve Abu Dabi Ulusal Petrol \u015eirketi (ADNOC) taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fletilen bir tankerin bo\u011fazda vurulmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik riskleri y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Diplomasi cephesinde gerilim s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Tahran, \u015fimdilik ABD ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri reddederek ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n sona erdirilmesi, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hafifletilmesi ve sava\u015f zararlar\u0131 i\u00e7in tazminat dahil taleplerini yineledi. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede, \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Binyamin Netanyahu, \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015f olsa da Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n 15 maddelik Gazze plan\u0131n\u0131 reddetti; Hamas ise teklife ba\u011fl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. TD Securities, k\u00fcresel ham petrol dengesinin yeniden belirgin bir a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; bu zeminin, geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen WTI ve Brent\u2019i destekledi\u011fini belirtti. Haber, 10 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 01:42 GMT\u2019de WTI\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmedi\u011fi, aksine y\u00fckseldi\u011fi \u015feklinde d\u00fczeltilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara bakarken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n WTI ham petrol piyasas\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. WTI\u2019nin halen varil ba\u015f\u0131na 79,40 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim ve k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 olmas\u0131yla birlikte son derece tepkisel bir i\u015flem ortam\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Y\u00f6n konusunda kesin bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f almadan sert fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, d\u00fcnya s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kesintiler ya da kapanma tehditleri, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zla \u00e7ift haneli y\u00fczde art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 2019 sonu ve 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda b\u00f6lgede tansiyon y\u00fckseldi\u011finde WTI z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak opsiyon primlerini belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. M\u00fczakerelerin daha da t\u0131kanmas\u0131 halinde benzer bir fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da ani geri \u00e7ekilmelerde yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Temel tarafta, geni\u015fleyen k\u00fcresel arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. Son veriler, bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel petrol talebinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 104 milyon varilin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini, OPEC+ arz kesintilerinin ise fiziki piyasay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yap\u0131sal a\u00e7\u0131k, diplomatik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n ge\u00e7ici fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine yol a\u00e7abilse de WTI i\u00e7in 75 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, API ve EIA\u2019n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok raporlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden gelebilecek resmi sevkiyat verilerinin yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Son haftalarda ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda beklenmedik azal\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, s\u0131k\u0131 piyasa tezini daha da do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu ortamda k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama riski ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde g\u00f6zler H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de: WTI 79,40 dolara toparland\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri belirsiz, tanker sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ve Husi tehdidi risk primini canl\u0131 tutuyor. TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat\u0131 destekliyor; opsiyonla oynakl\u0131k de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t