ABD\u2019de makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, temmuzda tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 23 bin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Wall Street Journal anketinde beklenti 83 bin art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. May\u0131s ve haziran verilerine y\u00f6nelik revizyonlar da \u00f6nceki toplam\u0131 103 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Buna ra\u011fmen k\u00fcresel hisse senetleri 29 Temmuz\u2019daki d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel dipten sonra y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; baz\u0131 piyasalarda rekor g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken di\u011ferlerinde bo\u015fluklar olu\u015ftu. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ASX endeksi 6 A\u011fustos\u2019ta t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u00c7in ve Hong Kong \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 zirvelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Hindistan\u2019da NIFTY 3 A\u011fustos\u2019ta 22 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131karken Japonya ayn\u0131 temmuz sonu dipten ba\u015flayan ralliye yeniden h\u0131z verdi. Avrupa\u2019da AEX, DAX ve FTSE t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvelerini g\u00f6r\u00fcrken \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin SMI endeksi 29 Temmuz rekorunun gerisinde kald\u0131; ABD\u2019de S&P 500 ve DJIA 5 A\u011fustos\u2019ta rekor k\u0131rd\u0131 ancak NASDAQ geride kald\u0131; Brezilya Bovespa ise 12 haftan\u0131n zirvesini i\u015faret etti. <\/p>\n\n
Emtia ve faiz cephesinde de hareket vard\u0131. Aral\u0131k vadeli alt\u0131n 4.432 ile yedi haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (30 Haziran: 3.955) ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 17 Temmuz\u2019daki 55,00 seviyesinden 65,48\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bitcoin 65.000\u201367.000 band\u0131nda kald\u0131. T-Note\u2019lar 31 Temmuz\u2019da 108\u2019in hemen alt\u0131ndaki y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 109\u2019un az \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131; ham petrol ise 23 Temmuz\u2019daki 93,50 zirvesinden sonra 70\u2019lerin orta b\u00f6lgesine geriledi olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. Takvimde 10\u201311 A\u011fustos\u2019ta Ven\u00fcs a\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131, 12 A\u011fustos\u2019ta g\u00fcne\u015f tutulmas\u0131 ve Mars\u2019\u0131n 11 A\u011fustos\u201329 Eyl\u00fcl aras\u0131nda Yenge\u00e7 burcu transiti not edildi.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta bir\u00e7ok endeks yeni t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvelerini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olsa da k\u00fcresel hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin uyar\u0131 i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dow Jones ve S&P 500 5 A\u011fustos\u2019ta rekor seviyelere ula\u015f\u0131rken, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nasdaq\u2019\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde geride kalmas\u0131 klasik bir piyasalar aras\u0131 (intermarket) negatif ayr\u0131\u015fma olu\u015fturuyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in savunmac\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131 biriktirmede kullanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ABD ekonomisinin temmuzda 23 bin istihdam kaybetti\u011fine ve may\u0131s-haziran i\u00e7in toplam 103 binlik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyona i\u015faret eden son verileriyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu \u015fekilde aniden tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u20142007 sonundaki resesyon \u00f6ncesi bordro d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine benzer bi\u00e7imde\u2014 hisse piyasas\u0131 zirveleri uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olmuyor. Rekor hisse zirveleri ile bozulan ekonomik temeller aras\u0131ndaki kopu\u015fun sert bir \u201cger\u00e7eklik kontrol\u00fc\u201d tetiklemesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6ng\u00fcsel a\u00e7\u0131dan, 12 A\u011fustos\u2019taki g\u00fcne\u015f tutulmas\u0131 ve kilit gezegensel hizalanmalar\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f penceresine bu hafta giriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak J\u00fcpiter\u2019in Aslan burcundan ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde \u20142002 ve 2015 gibi\u2014 d\u00f6ng\u00fc tamamlanmadan \u00f6nce s\u0131kl\u0131kla sert borsa sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 veya volatilite endeksi (VIX) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f etkileyici ralliler sergiledi; alt\u0131n 4.432\u2019ye dokunurken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f ge\u00e7en hafta 65,48\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ancak 12 A\u011fustos\u2019taki yakla\u015fan g\u00fcne\u015f tutulmas\u0131, de\u011ferli metallerde ani trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir jeokozmik imza olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, metal vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki uzun pozisyonlarda k\u00e2r\u0131 kilitlemeyi veya ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu arada, hazine tahvili (T-Note) kontratlar\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n temmuz zirvelerinden 70\u2019lerin orta band\u0131na sert gerilemesiyle yeniden 109\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015fen enerji fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r; bu da tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekler ve getirilerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki so\u011fuman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin devam edece\u011fi beklentisiyle, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli geri \u00e7ekilmelerde T-Note\u2019larda al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok veri, rekor borsa: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam temmuzda 23 bin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, revizyonlar -103 bin. Nasdaq geri kalarak negatif ayr\u0131\u015fma veriyor; alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f y\u00fckselirken petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor\u2014d\u00fczeltme riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t