DBS Group Research, Singapur\u2019un nihai 2\u00c726 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin, \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminlerdeki s\u0131ras\u0131yla %5,7 ve %1,1 seviyelerine k\u0131yasla, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,9\u2019a ve mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00e7eyreklik bazda %1,3\u2019e yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesini bekliyor. Revizyonun, ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanandan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir imalat performans\u0131na ek olarak, ticaret ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hizmet faaliyetlerindeki toparlanma ve haziranda yeniden ihracattaki (re-exports) art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hizmetler b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmeden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
DBS Group Research, 1Y26 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin trendin \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle birlikte, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin resmi 2026 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %2,0\u2013%4,0 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan %4,0\u2013%5,0 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. G\u00fcncellemenin, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki belirsizlik ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere at\u0131flar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle birlikte gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Singapur\u2019un nihai ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir %5,9\u2019a yukar\u0131 revize edilmesinin beklendi\u011fi ortamda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Singapur dolar\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki %5,7\u2019lik tahminden gelen bu yukar\u0131 revizyon dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin (MAS) kurun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na izin verecek \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131d\u0131r. Tarihsel veriler, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc GSYH revizyonu d\u00f6nemlerinde para biriminin ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 genellikle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, k\u0131sa vadeli SGD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya SGD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130malat ve ticaret ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hizmetlerdeki s\u0131\u00e7rama, Singapur hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinin de \u015fu an olduk\u00e7a cazip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Straits Times Endeksi (STI) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya MSCI Singapur Endeksi \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yeniden ihracatta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc toparlanma ve petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i ihracatta (NODX) istikrar sinyalleri dahil son ticaret istatistikleri, bu imalat ivmesinin \u00e7eyre\u011fin geri kalan\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda, Singapur Gecelik Faiz Ortalamas\u0131 (SORA) oranlar\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz indirimi d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcndeyken, Singapur\u2019da trend \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme yerel swap oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan, k\u0131sa vadeli (short-end) SORA faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit \u00f6deyen (paid-fixed) pozisyonlara girerek faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm s\u00fcrse de, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015faret edilen k\u00fcresel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler ve belirsizliklere kar\u015f\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde korunma (hedge) yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet tam y\u0131l GSYH tahminini resmi olarak %4,0\u2013%5,0 band\u0131na y\u00fckseltse bile, k\u00fcresel talepteki ani bir de\u011fi\u015fim piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Nihai resmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in, hisse pozisyonlar\u0131nda koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz revizyon kap\u0131da: DBS, Singapur 2\u00c726 GSYH\u2019sinin %5,9\u2019a ve \u00e7eyreklik %1,3\u2019e y\u00fckseltilece\u011fini, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin 2026 tahminini %4\u2013%5\u2019e \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini; SGD, STI ve SORA\u2019da pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t