GBP\/JPY, 211,47\u2019ye kadar geriledikten sonra dengelendi; 211,91\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine alt\u0131na sarksa da toparlanarak yeniden 212,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,24 ekside seyrederken, haftay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlarla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor ve 212,64 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Fiyat hareketi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rken, ABD ve Japon otoritelerin FX piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi sonras\u0131nda hafif bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Yen\u2019in haftay\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kapatmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde diren\u00e7, 214,48\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve ard\u0131ndan 215,42\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA \u00e7evresinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor; bu seviyeler toparlanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ilk destek 212,00\u2019de izleniyor; 211,91\u2019in alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma halinde odak 211,00\u2019e ve ard\u0131ndan 3 A\u011fustos dip seviyesi olan 209,58\u2019e kayacak. B\u00fcltene at\u0131f yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k performans verileri, maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimlerden olu\u015fturulan \u0131s\u0131 haritas\u0131na g\u00f6re Japon Yeni\u2019nin \u0130ngiliz Sterlini kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019nin 211,91 seviyesindeki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun ge\u00e7ici bir taban sinyali verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemcileri, risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu seviyeyi kilit bir referans olarak kullanmal\u0131; zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerini 211,47\u2019deki son dip seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na konumland\u0131rabilir. Tarihsel olarak bu kilit ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015f, genellikle daha derin bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikler; A\u011fustos 2024\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz sert carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine benzer \u015fekilde.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; zira 214,48\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve 215,42\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 bulunuyor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu \u201ctavan\u201d direncinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu bant hareketi beklentisi, son CFTC yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 taahh\u00fctleri (COT) verileriyle de destekleniyor: Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesiyle net uzun Sterlin pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %15\u2019ten fazla geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6zellikle Japonya ve ABD otoritelerinin kur hareketlerinin ekonomik temellerden sapmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini dile getirdi\u011fi bir ortamda, ani politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2024\u2019teki 9,8 trilyon yenlik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinin GBP\/JPY\u2019de anl\u0131k ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini kan\u0131tl\u0131yor. Halihaz\u0131rda GBP\/JPY i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda; bu da piyasadaki dalgal\u0131 seyrin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, 211,00\u2013214,50 band\u0131ndaki mevcut s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi bant stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u00f6nl\u00fc hamle arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6nemli sermaye ba\u011flamadan \u00f6nce bu band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda teyitli bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rmeyi beklemesi daha uygun olacakt\u0131r. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun %2,2 civar\u0131nda istikrar kazanmas\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,5 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131yla, altta yatan getiri dinamikleri piyasay\u0131 ani merkez bankas\u0131 s\u00f6ylemlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek derecede hassas tutmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\/Yen\u2019de tansiyon d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor: 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131 sarkma sonras\u0131 212 \u00fczerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f var. Diren\u00e7 214,48-215,42; destek 212-211-209,58. M\u00fcdahale riski ve %11,5 oynakl\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t