ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin \u0130ran\u2013Umman anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve bunun enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc getiri e\u011frisinin genelinde geriledi. Bir ABD\u2019li yetkili, ilerleme kaydedildi\u011fini ve engelsiz seyr\u00fcseferi yeniden tesis edecek bir anla\u015fma a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) yakla\u015f\u0131k %1\u2019lik kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 77,50 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi ise yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,651\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri sonras\u0131 faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %58\u2019den %30\u2019a indirirken, faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131na %70 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatlad\u0131. Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 23 bin geriledi; may\u0131s ve haziran revizyonlar\u0131 toplam\u0131 103 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,42 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,54\u2019e inerken, gelecek hafta oda\u011fa t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici enflasyonu, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni yerle\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvercin bir kaymaya pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131; faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ve opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca %30 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla, getiriler %4,5 destek seviyesine do\u011fru gerilerken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak cazip bir risk-getiri sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamdaki benzer sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler\u2014ge\u00e7mi\u015f ekonomik yava\u015flamalar d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyonlar gibi\u2014kal\u0131c\u0131 tahvil rallilerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 99,54\u2019e gerilemesi, d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevleri yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirgin bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Gelecek haftaki enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Euro\u2019da (EUR\/USD) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya k\u0131sa dolar risk reversal stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Gelecek hafta beklentiden daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir T\u00dcFE verisi, Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirerek dolar\u0131 98,00 civar\u0131ndaki tarihsel destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda WTI ham petrolde ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. \u0130ran\u2013Umman seyr\u00fcsefer anla\u015fmas\u0131 tamamlan\u0131r ve ABD Donanmas\u0131 ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131r\u0131rsa, arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 WTI\u2019\u0131 mevcut 77,50 dolar seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na itebilir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisindeki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, riski y\u00f6netirken arz kaynakl\u0131 bu bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinde paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de \u0130ran\u2013Umman anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisi petrol\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131, ABD tahvil getirileri geriledi. Zay\u0131f istihdam Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %30\u2019a indirdi. F\u0131rsat: 10Y call, EUR\/USD call, WTI put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t