Arjantin\u2019in mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2 artt\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemki %-5,7\u2019lik okumay\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirdi. Bu hareket, bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctte daralmadan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7i\u015fe i\u015faret ederek, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla \u00fcretim ko\u015fullar\u0131nda iyile\u015fmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, %2 ile %-5,7 k\u0131yaslamas\u0131na dayanarak \u00f6nceki orana g\u00f6re 7,7 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Seri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ve mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olarak raporlan\u0131yor; bu nedenle okuma, mevsimsel d\u00fczeltme olmaks\u0131z\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimleri yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Arjantin\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimi haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda beklenmedik \u015fekilde %2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek, \u00f6nceki %-5,7\u2019lik daralmadan sert bir s\u0131\u00e7rama kaydetti. Bu ani toparlanma, \u00fclkenin sanc\u0131l\u0131 ekonomik reformlar\u0131n\u0131n nihayet ger\u00e7ek bir toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu s\u00fcrpriz d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Arjantin varl\u0131klar\u0131nda belirgin bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda, Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL) ve YPF gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck Arjantin ADR\u2019lar\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu hisseler, yurti\u00e7i ekonomik aktiviteye y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor ve uluslararas\u0131 fonlar\u0131n yeniden giri\u015f yapmas\u0131yla rahatl\u0131kla \u00e7ift haneli getiriler g\u00f6rebilir. Tarihsel olarak, s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 geli\u015fen piyasalarda benzer olumlu sanayi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri, hisse opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli sert rallilere yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili tarafta ise Arjantin\u2019in dolar cinsi devlet tahvillerinde, \u00f6zellikle 2030 ve 2035 vadelerinde opsiyonlar\u0131 hedeflemeliyiz. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisinin, son d\u00f6nemde 1.500 baz puan civar\u0131nda dalgalanan Arjantin \u00fclke risk primini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi ve tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu tahvillerde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanmak, \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: Arjantin sanayi \u00fcretimi haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k %2\u2019ye d\u00f6nerek %-5,7\u2019den 7,7 puan s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Daralmadan b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7i\u015f, reformlar\u0131n etkisini ve ADR\u2019lar ile 2030-2035 tahvillerinde yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50012,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t