EUR\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc seans i\u00e7i dip seviyesinden hafif toparlansa da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte kald\u0131; bu, Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam raporunun Amerikan seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde Yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi yer ald\u0131. Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin ge\u00e7en haftaki koordineli Yen-al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u00fcregelen hassasiyet ise piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 Japon para birimini satma konusunda temkinli tuttu. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD i\u015flemlerinin erken b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %1\u2019den fazla geriledi ve Yen, Temmuz\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde uzakta. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ticaret verileri destek sa\u011flayamazken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; piyasalar bu y\u0131l yaln\u0131zca bir ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor ve ikinci art\u0131\u015f ihtimali daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik risk de arka plan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve m\u00fczakereci Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD politikas\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirirken, Fars\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 taslak plana g\u00f6re ABD ve \u0130srail gemilerinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015finin engellenebilece\u011fi belirtildi. Olas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir kesinti, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rabilir ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini bozabilir; bu unsur daha \u00f6nce Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131kla ili\u015fkilendirilmi\u015fti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/JPY 182,00 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA olan 182,17\u2019nin ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA olan 184,70\u2019in alt\u0131nda, RSI ise 41\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131. Diren\u00e7 182,13\u2019te; ard\u0131ndan 182,17 ve 182,69 seviyeleri izlenirken, destek 181,76 ve 181,30\u2019da bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, EUR\/JPY paritesi 182,00 e\u015fi\u011fi \u00e7evresinde seyrederken \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan ve Tokyo-Washington ortak m\u00fcdahale riskinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle, ani Yen rallilerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tek tarafl\u0131 veya iki tarafl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck kur hareketleri yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nceki piyasa operasyonlar\u0131nda harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rekor 9,8 trilyon yen ile benzer nitelikte.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 182,13 ile 182,17 aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Parite bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ederse, 181,30\u2019daki kritik destek taban\u0131n\u0131 hedeflerken bear put spread gibi stratejiler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar \u00fcretebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 100 d\u00f6nemlik hareketli ortalama olan 184,70 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc kurgular\u0131n h\u0131zla terk edilip call opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fini unutmamak gerekiyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ham petrol maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini zedelemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir. ECB\u2019nin temkinli duru\u015fu Euro\u2019yu g\u00f6rece istikrarl\u0131 tutarken, y\u00fcksek enerji faturalar\u0131 uzun vadede Yen\u2019in ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde toparlanabilece\u011fini yap\u0131sal olarak s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, Yen \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131r ve uzun vadeli y\u00f6nsel pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131mak yerine, esnek ve k\u0131sa vadeli bir i\u015flem profili korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/JPY 182 \u00e7evresinde zay\u0131f: ABD istihdam verisiyle Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lendi, m\u00fcdahale hassasiyeti sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 frenliyor. ECB sabit. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski enerji faturas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Opsiyonla ani Yen rallisine haz\u0131rl\u0131k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t