Meksika pesosu, ABD\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f istihdam verilerinin dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fer kazand\u0131; USD\/MXN, 17,09 ile be\u015f ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 17,18 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Meksika\u2019da enflasyon, Temmuz\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,37\u2019den %3,12\u2019ye gerileyerek alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ise %3,94 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %3,95 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Banxico politika faizini %6,50\u2019de sabit tutarak istikrarl\u0131 duru\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, projeksiyonlar\u0131nda man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun 2026\u2019da %3,5\u2019e, %3 hedefiyle yak\u0131nsaman\u0131n ise 2027\u2019nin d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019de Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 23 binlik istihdam kayb\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; May\u0131s ve Haziran revizyonlar\u0131 da istihdam\u0131 103 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,42 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,54\u2019e indi. Teknik seviyelerde spotun 17,1364 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, 17,4061 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki SMA k\u00fcmesinin ve 17,4584\u2019te direncin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, RSI (14) 32,4 seviyesindeydi; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc referans noktalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda 15,6962 yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in FX forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri \u00fczerinden peso uzun carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131na girmeliyiz. Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Banxico) faizi %6,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in zay\u0131f ABD istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan beklemede kalmas\u0131, getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde peso lehine \u00e7eviriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu geni\u015f faiz makaslar\u0131, pesoda kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi destekledi; bu da \u015fu a\u015famada getiri arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in para swaplar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/MXN\u2019nin 17,40 civar\u0131ndaki kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 15,69 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru ilave geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in USD\/MXN \u00fczerinde bear-put spread stratejisi kullanabiliriz. Bu opsiyon stratejisi, piyasan\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olarak 17,45\u2019teki diren\u00e7 trend \u00e7izgisine do\u011fru s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 durumunda da koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 32,4 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yeniden ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce olas\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme tepkisine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 17,13 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut dip seviyelerden piyasay\u0131 kovalamak yerine, ge\u00e7ici y\u00fckseli\u015flerde USD\/MXN satmak \u00fczere limit emirler belirlemeliyiz. Bu sab\u0131rl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m, short kapama kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalara yakalanma riskini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Meksika\u2019n\u0131n Sanayi \u00dcretimi verisini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde son d\u00f6nemde 99,54\u2019e kadar gerileyen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi, pesodaki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu veri kaynakl\u0131 olay risklerini, ani volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131yla hedge edebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar\u0131 vuran zay\u0131f ABD istihdam\u0131yla Meksika pesosu g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; USD\/MXN 17,09\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Enflasyon alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n dibinde, Banxico %6,50\u2019de. Carry trade, bear-put spread, 17,45 diren\u00e7 izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t