{"id":52516,"date":"2026-08-07T23:21:48","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T23:21:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/yumusak-dolar-ve-fed-fiyatlamalarindaki-yeniden-ayarlama-ile-eur-usd-yukselise-gecerken-kritik-hareketli-ortalama-direnci-gundemde\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T23:21:48","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T23:21:48","slug":"yumusak-dolar-ve-fed-fiyatlamalarindaki-yeniden-ayarlama-ile-eur-usd-yukselise-gecerken-kritik-hareketli-ortalama-direnci-gundemde","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yumusak-dolar-ve-fed-fiyatlamalarindaki-yeniden-ayarlama-ile-eur-usd-yukselise-gecerken-kritik-hareketli-ortalama-direnci-gundemde\/","title":{"rendered":"Yumu\u015fak Dolar ve Fed Fiyatlamalar\u0131ndaki Yeniden Ayarlama ile EUR\/USD Y\u00fckseli\u015fe Ge\u00e7erken Kritik Hareketli Ortalama Direnci G\u00fcndemde"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131f bir ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisinin ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini geri \u00e7ekmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Parite 1,1562 civar\u0131nda, yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, fiyat hareketi bir haftadan uzun s\u00fcredir bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Temmuz sonlar\u0131nda 1,1400 alt\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015fler 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) taraf\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131; bu da piyasay\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu tavan\u0131 a\u015f\u0131p a\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131na odakl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed beklentilerindeki g\u00fcvercin yeniden fiyatlama ile Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da bar\u0131\u015f umutlar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin iyimserli\u011fin deste\u011fiyle pozitif kalmaya devam ediyor; bu unsurlar ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bir sonraki kataliz\u00f6r, gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi. Grafikte 1,1471\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ilk destek konumunda; ard\u0131ndan 1,1400 seviyesi izleniyor. RSI\u2019\u0131n 63\u2019te olmas\u0131 ve pozitif MACD ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7 1,1568\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da, sonras\u0131nda 1,1629\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da bulunuyor; bunun \u00fczerinde 1,1700 ve 1,1800 seviyeleri g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n

Potansiyel Bir K\u0131r\u0131lma \u0130\u00e7in Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcn 7 A\u011fustos 2026 itibar\u0131yla EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1562 yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrini izlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler 1,1568\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131. Gelecek haftaki ABD T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 hafta olan k\u0131sa vadeli EUR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi, CFTC\u2019nin son pozisyonlanma verilerinde spek\u00fclatif net uzun Euro kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n bu ay %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle de destekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel Kal\u0131plar ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n

Tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, RSI\u2019\u0131n 63 oldu\u011fu bir ortamda 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya do\u011fru (halen 1,1629\u2019da) h\u0131zl\u0131 bir %1,5\u2019lik ralli tetikliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 2023 sonlar\u0131ndaki benzer bir teknik k\u0131r\u0131lmada, kritik direncin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla parite yaln\u0131zca iki haftada 220 pip y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Prim maliyetlerini y\u00f6netirken getiriyi art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 1,1700 ve 1,1800 hedefli bo\u011fa call spread stratejileri kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli kal\u0131nmal\u0131 ve 1,1471\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA deste\u011finin biraz alt\u0131na koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya zarar-kes seviyeleri yerle\u015ftirilmelidir. Gelecek haftaki enflasyon verisinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde ABD Dolar\u0131 h\u0131zla kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi edebilir ve pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu t\u00fcr hedge\u2019lerin korunmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n aniden 1,1400 psikolojik taban\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilmesi durumunda portf\u00f6yleri daha g\u00fcvenli hale getirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

NFP sonras\u0131 Fed beklentileri gev\u015fedi, EUR\/USD 1,1562\u2019de 7 haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n. Odak 1,1568 (100g SMA) k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131; 1,1629-1,1700 hedef. T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi call\/call spread, 1,1471 alt\u0131na hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t