{"id":52515,"date":"2026-08-07T22:52:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:52:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-tahvil-getirileri-ve-dolari-baskilamasiyla-altin-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi-gozler-tufede\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:52:05","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T22:52:05","slug":"zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-tahvil-getirileri-ve-dolari-baskilamasiyla-altin-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi-gozler-tufede","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-tahvil-getirileri-ve-dolari-baskilamasiyla-altin-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi-gozler-tufede\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin tahvil getirileri ve dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131yla alt\u0131n 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019den gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k istihdam verilerinin Hazine tahvili getirileri ile dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n sert y\u00fckseldi. XAU\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,30\u2019dan fazla, haftal\u0131k bazda ise %7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde primle 4.340 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 17 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 4.371 dolar\u0131 test etti. Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam, 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 23 bin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, May\u0131s ve Haziran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik toplam revizyonlar \u00f6nceki toplamdan 103 bin \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e geriledi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi iki baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,687\u2019ye inerken, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,42 kay\u0131pla 99,54\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n

Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti. WTI 78 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %9,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ge\u00e7iriyor; piyasalar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat beklentilerini de\u011ferlendiriyor. Swap piyasas\u0131nda, Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %58\u2019den %30\u2019a gerilerken, faizin sabit kalma ihtimali %70\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Odak \u015fimdi, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e gerilemesi beklenen Temmuz T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2,6\u2019dan %2,5\u2019e inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ard\u0131ndan \u00dcFE ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019ye etkileri izlenecek. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 (4.152 dolar) a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 (4.390 dolar) test ediyor; diren\u00e7 4.450 ve 4.500\u2019de, destek ise 4.202\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan 4.152, 4.100 ve 4.019\u2019da bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

ABD \u0130stihdam Verisi Sonras\u0131 Piyasa Dinamikleri<\/h3>\n

ABD istihdam raporunun hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine f\u0131rlarken piyasa dinamiklerinde sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130stihdam\u0131n 23 bin azalmas\u0131 ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,687\u2019ye gerilemesiyle birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferli metallerde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak Fed zay\u0131f istihdam g\u00f6stergeleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, faiz getirili varl\u0131klardan g\u00fcvenli liman alt\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sermaye kaymas\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz swap piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir anda yaln\u0131zca %30\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131ndan bu h\u0131zl\u0131 uzakla\u015fma, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n gibi getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 99,54\u2019e gerileyen Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi beklentisiyle bu de\u011fi\u015fen faiz alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayacak pozisyonlar arayabilir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, Enerji ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, enflasyonun %3,4\u2019e gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na odaklanmak gerekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinden gelen veriler, enflasyonun zay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131yla birlikte yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n takip eden haftalarda ortalama %5 ila %10 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu veriler \u00f6ncesinde alt\u0131nda uzun vadeli al\u0131m (long call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla pozisyonlanmak, enflasyonun beklentiden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi halinde y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

West Texas Intermediate ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %9,9\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli; bu hareket daha geni\u015f enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 so\u011futmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve bu da k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumunu destekler. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu korelasyonlu piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in petrol put\u2019lar\u0131 veya alt\u0131n call\u2019lar\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Teknik olarak alt\u0131n, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine yerle\u015ftikten sonra 4.390 dolardaki kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019y\u0131 zorluyor. 4.390 \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 hatt\u0131 4.450\u2019ye ve potansiyel olarak psikolojik 4.500 e\u015fi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in 4.202\u2019de olu\u015fan yeni destek yak\u0131n\u0131na zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok istihdam verisi alt\u0131n\u0131 u\u00e7urdu: XAU\/USD %2,3 art\u0131\u015fla 4.340 dolara, haftada %7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tahvil faizi ve DXY gerilerken Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimali %30\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de. Teknikte 4.390 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52515","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t