ABD hisse senetleri, temmuz istihdam verisindeki daralmaya neredeyse hi\u00e7 tepki vermedi. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 puan ya da %0,1 art\u0131da, 54.000 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 12:30 GMT\u2019deki veri sonras\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 54.100\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerini test etti ve bu zirveyi yeniden g\u00f6rmedi. Faiz taraf\u0131nda vadeli i\u015flemler nihai seviyeden \u00e7ok zamanlamay\u0131 yeniden fiyatlad\u0131: 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %44,1, de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %55,9\u2019a i\u015faret ediyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bir hafta \u00f6nce \u201csabit tutma\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %59,2 seviyesindeydi. 28 Ekim i\u00e7in \u201csabit tutma\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %88,0\u2019dan %68,5\u2019e geriledi. 9 Aral\u0131k itibar\u0131yla mevcut %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131 %0 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlan\u0131rken, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar ikinci bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %31,3\u2019ten %14,4\u2019e indi.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadenin rallisiyle ABD tahvil e\u011frisi dikle\u015fti. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 4 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,204\u2019e indi ve 17 Temmuz\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,651\u2019e gerilerken 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,208\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve bir hafta \u00f6nce 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n %61,4\u2019e (be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) gerilemesiyle %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e indi; U6 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %7,9\u2019da kald\u0131. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2 ile %3,5 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; \u00f6nceki veri %3,4\u2019e revize edildi ve haziran istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 57 bin\u2019den 20 bin\u2019e indirildi. Endeks daha \u00f6nce 54.750\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda rekor seviyeye y\u00fckselmi\u015fti ve ikinci haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015finde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.500 puan, yani yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 art\u0131da. Petrol\u00fcn 78,00 dolar civar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair anlat\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131rken; sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc sekiz gemi ge\u00e7i\u015f yapt\u0131, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesinde bu say\u0131 g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 100\u2019d\u00fc. 16 Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar T\u00dcFE\u2019yi (man\u015fet ayl\u0131k %0,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4; \u00e7ekirdek ayl\u0131k %0,2, y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5), \u00dcFE\u2019yi (ayl\u0131k %0,1), perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Michigan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenini (55,2\u2019den 54\u2019e) bekliyor; beklentiler bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in %4,2 ve be\u015f y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in %3,3 seviyesinde. Teknik g\u00f6stergelerde 54.100 \u00fczeri diren\u00e7, 53.800 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 52.000 civar\u0131nda, Stoch RSI ise 50\u2019ye yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara temkinli yakla\u015fmak gerekiyor; zira i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki son daralma, bir i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma dalgas\u0131ndan ziyade i\u015fe al\u0131m\u0131n durmas\u0131 (hiring freeze) niteli\u011finde. Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi 54.000 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, hisse piyasas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepkisi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yap\u0131sal zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6rmezden gelerek jeopolitik iyimserli\u011fe a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Benzer i\u015fe al\u0131m donmalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle daha net veriler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kana kadar agresif uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak uygun olur.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda, Dow\u2019da 53.800\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesini hedefleyerek k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu e\u015fi\u011fin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 53.500 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir ve son y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (bullish breakout) ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131labilir. Gelecek \u00e7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesinde mevcut hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne de yak\u0131ndan bakmak gerekiyor; varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78,00 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ham petrol, gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerinin desteklemedi\u011fi bir jeopolitik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc fiyatl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7i\u015f m\u00fczakereleri s\u00fcrse de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck gemi ge\u00e7i\u015fleri, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi 100 gemi\/g\u00fcn seviyesinin yaln\u0131zca %8\u2019i d\u00fczeyinde. Deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki darbo\u011fazlar s\u00fcrer ve arz endi\u015feleri yeniden fiyatlamaya d\u00f6nerse, Brent veya WTI al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri profili sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Sabit getirili t\u00fcrevler taraf\u0131nda, k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131n\u0131n, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in %4,2 d\u00fczeyindeki enflasyon beklentilerine olduk\u00e7a duyarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in ertelenen politika patikas\u0131na uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k-10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri e\u011frisinde \u201csteepener\u201d stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u0130stihdamdaki daralma Wall Street\u2019i sarsmad\u0131; Dow 54.000\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Fed beklentileri \u201czamanlama\u201dya kayd\u0131, e\u011fri dikle\u015fti. Kritik seviyeler: 54.100 diren\u00e7, 53.800 destek; T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi hedge, petrolde opsiyon f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t