NZD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131f ABD istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan gerilemesi ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131yla birlikte Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5890 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; parite seansta %0,36 y\u00fckseldi. ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) Temmuz\u2019da 23 bin azalarak 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Haziran verisi 57 binden 20 bine, May\u0131s verisi ise 129 binden 63 bine revize edilirken, toplam a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon 103 bine ula\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e gerilerken, y\u0131ll\u0131k Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 revize %3,4\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131. Piyasalar Fed politikas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ayarlad\u0131: CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %42\u2019ye indi; bu oran bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %55 ve bir hafta \u00f6nce %67 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
New York Fed anket verileri, Temmuz\u2019da bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisinin %3,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011fini (Haziran: %3,7) g\u00f6sterirken, \u00fc\u00e7 ve be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 0,5884 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki yeniden kazan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trend \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde tutundu ve 0,5876 ile 0,5854\u2019te bulunan 100 ve 200 periyotluk hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; RSI 61 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Destek seviyeleri 0,5884, 0,5876, 0,5860 ve 0,5854 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, diren\u00e7 0,5909\u2019da bulunuyordu. Teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu ani de\u011fi\u015fime, y\u00fckselen momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in NZD\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar olu\u015fturarak yan\u0131t vermeliyiz; bu kapsamda call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli i\u015flemler kullan\u0131labilir. Bu hareket i\u00e7in ilk hedef 0,5909\u2019daki kritik diren\u00e7 seviyesi olup, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde daha yukar\u0131 potansiyel de mevcuttur. Tarihsel olarak ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi beklentileri bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131 ayarland\u0131k\u00e7a ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) s\u0131k\u00e7a 1% ile 2% aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ve Haziran i\u00e7in toplam 103 binlik b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla %42\u2019ye gerilemesiyle ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenebilir; bu da dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015fu, Kiwi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel taban olu\u015fturuyor; bu da NZD\u2019yi USD zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na oynayan i\u015flemler i\u00e7in tercih edilen bir ara\u00e7 haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in, saatlik grafikte 0,5876 ile 0,5854 aras\u0131ndaki hareketli ortalama destek k\u00fcmesinin hemen alt\u0131na zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 61\u2019de bulundu\u011fundan, paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden \u00f6nce ilerleyebilece\u011fi kayda de\u011fer bir alan var; bu da 0,5884 yak\u0131n\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m stratejisini destekliyor. 0,5909 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ad\u0131na tetikleyici sinyalimiz olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fla\u015f: Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam\u0131 dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131, NZD\/USD 0,5890\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131. Revizyonlarla Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlamas\u0131 gerilerken RBNZ \u015fahin. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 0,5884 \u00fcst\u00fcnde; hedef 0,5909, stop 0,5854 alt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t