ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri temmuzda zay\u0131flad\u0131; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, bir \u00f6nceki aydaki 80 binlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 23 bin geriledi ve \u00f6nceki aylar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalama istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 20 bine indirirken, hanehalk\u0131 istihdam g\u00f6stergeleri de zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere gerilemesi dikkat \u00e7ekti; baz\u0131 etkenler yap\u0131sal olsa da bu kombinasyon \u00e7evrimsel at\u0131l kapasiteye i\u015faret ediyor. Verilerdeki bu kayma, Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) \u00e7ifte mandat\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon ve istihdam aras\u0131nda daha dengeli h\u00e2le getiriyor; ancak temel beklenti, enflasyon y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in riskler bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na meyilli olsa da, politikan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda beklemede kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Fed\u2019in so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ve inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde faiz beklentilerinde ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamdaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k dipleri, Fed\u2019in oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden istihdam mandat\u0131na \u00e7ekmeye zorluyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, Teminatl\u0131 Gecelik Finansman Oran\u0131 (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalama istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na indi\u011finde, Fed iki \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7inde gev\u015feme e\u011filimine ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ABD Hazine 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,1\u2019de, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise %4,2 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, piyasa uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatl\u0131yor. Sabit getirili piyasalar\u0131n hen\u00fcz tam olarak fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olas\u0131 ani bir g\u00fcvercin pivotuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in faiz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerindeki bozulman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi h\u00e2linde getirilerde olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla yak\u0131n vadeli SOFR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerini al\u0131p 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerini satarak getiri e\u011frisi dikle\u015fmesi (steepener) stratejileri uygulayabilir. Bu kurgu, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyondan kaynakl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, i\u015fsizlikte s\u0131\u00e7rama olmas\u0131 durumunda agresif faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131ndan do\u011fabilecek yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in e\u011filimini h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7arp\u0131tan yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Bu riski dengelemek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, para politikas\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131na y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steren ana hisse endekslerinde iron condor stratejilerinden yararlanabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, zay\u0131flayan istihdam verilerine ra\u011fmen Fed\u2019in beklemede kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde yatay bantta seyreden piyasalardan getiri elde etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok sinyal: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam temmuzda 23 bin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, \u00f6nceki aylar revize edildi; kat\u0131l\u0131m dipte. Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de kayabilir. SOFR call, faiz opsiyonu, 2Y-10Y steepener, endekste iron condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t