{"id":52504,"date":"2026-08-07T17:52:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T17:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/eylulde-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-zayiflamasiyla-gozler-tufeye-cevrilirken-altin-haftalik-yukselisle-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T17:52:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T17:52:00","slug":"eylulde-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-zayiflamasiyla-gozler-tufeye-cevrilirken-altin-haftalik-yukselisle-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eylulde-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-zayiflamasiyla-gozler-tufeye-cevrilirken-altin-haftalik-yukselisle-4-300-dolarin-uzerine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla g\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019ye \u00e7evrilirken alt\u0131n haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fle 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, ocak ay\u0131ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck haftal\u0131k kazanc\u0131n\u0131 kaydederek haziran ortas\u0131ndan beri ilk kez 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n eyl\u00fclde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini geri \u00e7ekmesiyle 4.350 dolar\u0131n da \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Hamleyi daha zay\u0131f ABD verileri destekledi: ADP, temmuzda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n 70 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 44 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirirken, ISM Hizmetler PMI istihdam endeksi 51,2\u2019den 47,4\u2019e gerileyerek daralma b\u00f6lgesine indi. CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %55\u2019e indirirken (bir hafta \u00f6nce neredeyse %70), alt\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek \u015fubat ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan BLS verileri, temmuz NFP\u2019nin 23 bin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; haziranda 20 binlik art\u0131\u015f ise 57 binden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi ve 80 binlik tahminin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Dikkatler \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD temmuz T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi; piyasa beklentisi ayl\u0131k %0,1 ve \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE i\u00e7in, hazirandaki %0,0\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k %0,2 art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Teknik tarafta g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI, ocak sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede; diren\u00e7 4.390 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile 4.495-4.510 dolar band\u0131nda bulunuyor. Bu b\u00f6lgede 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA, %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesiyle kesi\u015fiyor; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m halinde %50 d\u00fczeltmeye denk gelen 4.680 dolar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Destekler 4.300 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.150 ve 4.100-4.080 band\u0131nda; bunlar\u0131n alt\u0131nda 3.965 dolar izleniyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n alarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n—\n

Alt\u0131n T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi ve G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.300 dolar e\u015fi\u011fi \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 konsolide ederken y\u00fckseli\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son iki y\u0131ldaki tarihi ralliyle birlikte fiyatlar\u0131n 2.000 dolar\u0131n orta seviyelerinden kademeli bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan, bu son teknik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Kritik 4.300 dolar destek seviyesi korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar veya al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki temmuz enflasyon raporu izlenmesi gereken bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r; piyasalar \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Enflasyon verisi beklentiden daha yumu\u015fak gelirse, 4.390 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareket bekliyoruz. Bu senaryoda, k\u0131sa vadeli alt\u0131n call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak; ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin gerilemesinden ve eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan, beklentiden s\u0131cak bir enflasyon okumas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 endi\u015felerini yeniden canland\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumam\u0131z gerekir. Bu durumda, sert geri \u00e7ekilmeleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in 4.150 ve 4.100 destek b\u00f6lgelerinin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, enflasyon verilerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde %3 ila %5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ani ve sert geri \u00e7ekilmeler g\u00f6sterebildi\u011finden, bu hafta s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n—\n

Alt\u0131n ve Petrol ile Jeopolitik Riskten Korunma<\/h3>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde ya\u015fanabilecek ani jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n da kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Gerilimin ge\u00e7ici olarak azalmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklemi\u015f olsa da, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakerelerde ani bir bozulma bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Zira \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131r ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden art\u0131r\u0131r; bu nedenle her iki varl\u0131kta da uzun volatilite stratejileri ta\u015f\u0131mak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir risk y\u00f6netimi sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda ralli ate\u015fi: Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileriyle Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %55\u2019e indi; fiyat 4.300-4.350\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\u2019de; 4.390\/4.510 diren\u00e7, 4.300 destek. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t