{"id":52499,"date":"2026-08-07T13:22:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T13:22:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-dolar-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-asagi-cekerken-altin-yedi-haftanin-zirvesine-sicradi-guvenli-liman-talebi-artti\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T13:22:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T13:22:10","slug":"zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-dolar-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-asagi-cekerken-altin-yedi-haftanin-zirvesine-sicradi-guvenli-liman-talebi-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-dolar-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-asagi-cekerken-altin-yedi-haftanin-zirvesine-sicradi-guvenli-liman-talebi-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi dolar ve tahvil getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken alt\u0131n yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gold (XAU\/USD), zay\u0131f gelen ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunun ABD Dolar\u0131 ve Hazine tahvil getirilerini bask\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti; spot fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.368 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve 17 Haziran\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 4.350 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. Temmuz istihdam verisi, 80 bin art\u0131\u015f beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 23 binlik istihdam kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, Haziran verisi de 57 binden 20 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019den %4,1\u2019e geriledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,47 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,45 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,60\u2019ta i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4,68\u2019lik zirvesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 baz puan alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Alt\u0131n, 4.000\u20134.200 dolar band\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan haftal\u0131k bazda %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilme enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131rken, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131; CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ad\u0131m ihtimali yakla\u015f\u0131k %42\u2019ye geriledi (bir hafta \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %67). H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u201cd\u00fc\u015fman hedeflere\u201d y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleri ve \u0130ran-Umman deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesine ili\u015fkin s\u00fcren tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik risk fiyatlamay\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Grafikte XAU\/USD, 4.086 dolardaki Bollinger 20 periyot SMA\u2019y\u0131 yeniden kazand\u0131 ve 4.272 dolardaki \u00fcst band\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; RSI 66 seviyesinde bulunurken MACD pozitif kalmaya devam etti. Diren\u00e7 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 4.390 dolarda; destekler ise 4.272, 4.086 ve 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n T\u00fcrevleri ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131nda (XAU\/USD) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131, \u00f6zellikle al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklanarak de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 23 binlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131na ciddi zarar verirken, Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 99,45\u2019e \u00e7ekti. Tarihsel veriler, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck sapmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde sermayenin g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelmesiyle alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinde i\u015flem hacminin s\u0131kl\u0131kla %15 ila %20 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz oran\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %67\u2019den %42\u2019ye geriledi. Tarihsel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine getirisinin %4,60\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi tahvil getirilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini anlaml\u0131 \u015fekilde azalt\u0131r. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, piyasan\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir Fed\u2019e uyum sa\u011flama s\u00fcrecinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanabilir.<\/p>\n

Volatilite Y\u00f6netimi ve Teknik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcregelen gerilim nedeniyle petrol t\u00fcrevleri ve alt\u0131n volatilitesi etraf\u0131nda riskin aktif bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor. Bir deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik umutlar enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak so\u011futmu\u015f olsa da, son askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleri jeopolitik risk primini son derece y\u00fcksek tutuyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert ve ani fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in hem petrolde hem de alt\u0131nda uzun straddle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, uzun pozisyonlarda k\u0131sa vadeli k\u00e2r alma seviyesi olarak 4.390 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n 4.390 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, tarihsel e\u011filimler daha y\u00fcksek psikolojik diren\u00e7 seviyelerine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareket ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise ani piyasa tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak amac\u0131yla, 4.272 dolardaki yak\u0131n destek taban\u0131na yak\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok NFP ile dolar ve tahvil getirileri gerileyince alt\u0131n 4.368 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131, haftal\u0131k %8\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131. Fed art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %42\u2019ye indi; jeopolitik risk destekli, hedef 4.390.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50139,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t