ABD BLS\u2019nin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 verilerin, Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n Haziran\u2019daki 57 binin ard\u0131ndan 80 bine y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,2\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131, AHE (Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar) \u00fczerinden \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fccret enflasyonunun ise %3,5 ile de\u011fi\u015fmeden korunaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Deutsche Bank, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 +57 bine kar\u015f\u0131 +65 bin olarak tahmin ederken, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131 +49 binden sonra +65 bin g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; i\u015fsizli\u011fi %4,2\u2019de \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekle birlikte, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131 halinde %4,3 riskine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Banka ayr\u0131ca AHE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 (Haziran ile ayn\u0131) artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ortalama haftal\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma saatinin 34,3\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. BNY Mellon ise pandemi \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla daha yava\u015f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fckselmesini engellemek i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 binlik \u201cba\u015faba\u015f\u201d istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 temposuna i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 gev\u015fedi; ham petrol Temmuz\u2019da %20\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldikten sonra A\u011fustos\u2019ta H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin iyimserlikle gerilerken, CME FedWatch Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Temmuz sonundaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 seviyesinden %55\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. 40 binin alt\u0131nda bir istihdam verisi, USD\u2019yi zay\u0131flat\u0131p EUR\/USD\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor; 100 binin \u00fczeri ise ABD aktivitesinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ederek parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. EUR\/USD seviyelerinde RSI 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde; diren\u00e7 1,1570, 1,1630 ve 1,1800; destek ise 1,1475-1,1440 band\u0131, devam\u0131nda 1,1360 ve 1,1280 olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Bug\u00fcn, Haziran\u2019daki zay\u0131f 57 binlik okuman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 80 bine toparlanmas\u0131 beklenen Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine yak\u0131ndan bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yak\u0131ndan izlenen veri noktas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131p art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde geliyor. Verinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla birlikte t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz ve faiz opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
40 binin alt\u0131nda zay\u0131f bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Bu senaryoda, 1,1570 ana diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ABD istihdam verilerinde benzer a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizler, ilk birka\u00e7 saat i\u00e7inde maj\u00f6r paritelerde h\u0131zl\u0131 100 pip\u2019lik hareketleri tetikleyebildi.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 100 binin \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, diren\u00e7li bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ederek Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu ko\u015fullarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; EUR\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sa (short) vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CME Group FedWatch\u2019in son verileri, Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %55\u2019te oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 beklentileri a\u015farsa \u015fahin y\u00f6nde ani bir yeniden fiyatlama i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de izlememiz gerekiyor; fiyatlar Temmuz\u2019da varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekilerek genel enflasyon endi\u015felerini hafifletti. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu gerileme Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla zay\u0131f bir NFP\u2019nin yaratabilece\u011fi USD a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131s\u0131, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi halinde daha da belirginle\u015febilir. \u0130stihdam verisi ile de\u011fi\u015fen enerji piyasas\u0131 dinamiklerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ikili belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik olarak straddle gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejilerinden yararlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklerde EUR\/USD i\u00e7in temel teknik e\u015fiklere odaklan\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle 1,1570\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) ve 1,1630\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA izleniyor. Bu seviyelerin \u00fczerinde bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ederek euroda daha uzun vadeli uzun (long) pozisyonlar i\u00e7in net bir sinyal verebilir. Bu bariyerler a\u015f\u0131lana kadar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruyucu zarar-kes (stop) seviyelerinin 1,1440 destek b\u00f6lgesi civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar nefesini tuttu: ABD NFP Temmuz\u2019da 80 bin bekleniyor, i\u015fsizlik %4,2. Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %55\u2019e indi. EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1570 diren\u00e7, 1,1440 destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52497","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t