Sterlin, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci seansta ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak GBP\/USD 1,3450 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi. Fiyat hareketi A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana bant i\u00e7inde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, parite 1,3400 ile 1,3500 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. ABD Dolar\u0131, Financial Times\u2019\u0131n Fed\u2019e yak\u0131n kaynaklara dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberde, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019un yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi halinde Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131rmaya haz\u0131r olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ifadelerin ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Temmuz ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) raporu \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuyor. Beklentiler, Haziran\u2019daki 57 bin seviyesinden 80 bine y\u00fckselen bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,2\u2019de sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 ve Temmuz 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla %3,5 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak UOB Group, GBP\/USD\u2019deki son y\u00fckseli\u015fte momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerek 1,3555 seviyesini diren\u00e7 olarak i\u015faret etti; 1,3410 alt\u0131na sarkman\u0131n ise bu seviyenin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ve 80 bin yeni istihdam beklentisiyle yak\u0131ndan izlenen ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3400\u20131,3500 band\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen belirleyecek. Bu kritik veri piyasaya yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131nda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ani volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son bir haftadaki son derece dar i\u015flem aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, istihdam verisinin beklentilerden belirgin \u015fekilde sapmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejileri olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un i\u015faret etti\u011fi Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali, ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak ABD ile Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde Sterlin \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon verilerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d (kal\u0131c\u0131) T\u00dcFE okumalar\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla peki\u015ftirerek pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in 1,3410 kritik destek seviyesi ile 1,3555 direncine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 1,3410 alt\u0131na teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, yak\u0131n vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131larak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getirebilir. Di\u011fer taraftan, call opsiyonlar\u0131nda al\u0131m\u0131n ancak paritenin 1,3555 tavan\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131p bu seviye \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131 halinde de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
Son piyasa istatistikleri, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin tahminlerden 15 binin \u00fczerinde sapma g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi durumlarda GBP\/USD\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama opsiyon hacminin genellikle %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %2,2 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015funu korumas\u0131, mevcut makro ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u201cgreenback\u201d (ABD Dolar\u0131) lehine oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130stihdam raporuna ilk piyasa tepkisi yat\u0131\u015fana kadar bug\u00fcn pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin muhafazak\u00e2r tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131nda: GBP\/USD 1,3400\u20131,3500 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Warsh\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali dolar\u0131 destekliyor. 1,3410 destek, 1,3555 diren\u00e7; veri \u015foku volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t