\u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (CNB), hazirandaki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutarak yeniden \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funa d\u00f6nd\u00fc; buna kar\u015f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc enflasyonist olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kurul, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc nominal \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n e\u015flik etti\u011fi y\u00fcksek \u00e7ekirdek enflasyondan kaynaklanan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri yineledi ve para arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde olas\u0131 bir h\u0131zlanmaya da dikkat \u00e7ekti. Ba\u015fkan Ale\u0161 Michl, \u00f6nceki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n faizleri \u015fimdilik daha uygun bir seviyeye getirdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, ileri toplant\u0131lar i\u00e7in se\u00e7enekleri a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Michl, CNB\u2019nin ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yak\u0131t fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na do\u011frudan tepki vermek yerine \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona \u00f6ncelik verece\u011fini belirtti; bu da petrol fiyat\u0131 hareketlerinin daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerine do\u011frudan yans\u0131ma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan koruna s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Commerzbank, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda EUR\/CZK\u2019nin 24,20 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %3,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemine haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fkan Ale\u0161 Michl\u2019in rahat bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015funa i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle, \u00c7ek korunas\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda keskin ve ani hareketler yapma e\u011filiminde olmayabilir. Prim erimesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/CZK strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejilere odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, \u00c7ek enflasyonunun merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefi civar\u0131nda istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son verilerle destekleniyor; enflasyon bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda %2,0 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu istikrar, agresif politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine y\u00f6nelik acil ihtiyac\u0131 azaltarak, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yerel getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir k\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak CNB\u2019nin uzun s\u00fcreli bir \u201cbekleme\u201d d\u00f6nemine girdi\u011fi zamanlarda, EUR\/CZK z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 genellikle uzun vadeli ortalamas\u0131 olan %6,5\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na iner.<\/p>\n
Piyasa beklentileri EUR\/CZK\u2019nin 24,20 yak\u0131n\u0131nda yatay seyredece\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, opsiyon kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 bariyerlerini bu kanal\u0131n hemen d\u0131\u015f\u0131na konumland\u0131rmak olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay i\u00e7inde vadesi dolacak opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00fcst diren\u00e7 s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n 24,50 civar\u0131nda ve alt destek taban\u0131n\u0131n 23,90 etraf\u0131nda belirlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu tampon, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck piyasa g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc tolere ederken merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na tepki verme isteksizli\u011finden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7i hizmet enflasyonu kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 uyan\u0131k kalmak gerekiyor. Yakla\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri, nominal \u00fccretlerin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u0131ll\u0131k %5 art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirse, CNB yeniden \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa d\u00f6nmek zorunda kalabilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, bant d\u0131\u015f\u0131na olas\u0131 beklenmedik k\u0131r\u0131lmalara kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131nda disiplinli stop-loss kullanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" CNB faizi %3,75\u2019te sabitleyip \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de d\u00f6nd\u00fc; enflasyonist riskleri (y\u00fcksek \u00e7ekirdek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccretler, para arz\u0131) vurgulad\u0131. Koruna hafif zay\u0131f; EUR\/CZK 24,20 band\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteye strangle\/condor \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50069,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t