{"id":52485,"date":"2026-08-07T07:22:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T07:22:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/yatirimcilar-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisini-beklerken-rupi-deger-kaybediyor-petrolde-toparlanma-ve-9557-usd-inr-seviyesi-odakta\/"},"modified":"2026-08-07T07:22:07","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T07:22:07","slug":"yatirimcilar-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisini-beklerken-rupi-deger-kaybediyor-petrolde-toparlanma-ve-9557-usd-inr-seviyesi-odakta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/yatirimcilar-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisini-beklerken-rupi-deger-kaybediyor-petrolde-toparlanma-ve-9557-usd-inr-seviyesi-odakta\/","title":{"rendered":"Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam Verisini Beklerken Rupi De\u011fer Kaybediyor; Petrolde Toparlanma ve 95,57 USD\/INR Seviyesi Odakta"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rupi, piyasalar\u0131n saat 18.00 IST\u2019de (12:30 GMT) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Temmuz ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisini beklemesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hafif geriledi; USD\/INR 95,27 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Temkinli hava, Temmuz ADP \u00d6zel Sekt\u00f6r \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi verisinin 44 bin ile TD Securities\u2019in 50 bin beklentisinin ve 65 binlik piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 80 bin gelmesi bekleniyor (Haziran: 57 bin); i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,2\u2019de sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 artmas\u0131 beklenirken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %54,5 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, iki haftal\u0131k sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 para birimlerinde hassasiyeti art\u0131rd\u0131. 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,13 y\u00fckseli\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.460 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ge\u00e7ici \u0130ran-ABD ate\u015fkesine ra\u011fmen \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Husiler ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 arz riskine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Teknik tarafta USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalama olan 95,57\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken RSI 44,6 seviyesinde; destekler 94,83 ve 94,15\u2019te bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n

Trading Strategies And Technical Outlook<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, USD\/INR\u2019da kritik 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 95,57 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD istihdam verisi beklentileri a\u015far ve pariteyi bu direncin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rsa, vadeli i\u015flemlerde uzun pozisyona girmek k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu bariyerin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda, en yak\u0131n vadeli (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla 94,83\u2019teki ilk destek seviyesini hedeflemek uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini \u015fu anda %54,5 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, a\u00e7\u0131klanacak saatlik kazan\u00e7 verisinin kurda sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetiklemesi muhtemel. Tarihsel olarak, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda beklenenden sadece %0,1\u2019lik bir sapma, rupi gibi geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerinde g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5\u2019lik oynakl\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Y\u00f6n riskini almadan bu oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi A\u011fustos sonuna denk gelen uzun straddle opsiyon stratejisinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Oil Market Volatility And Risk Management<\/h3>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik gerilim, MCX Ham Petrol\u2019\u00fc yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.460 rupi seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yarak Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tehdit ediyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda her %10\u2019luk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n Hindistan\u2019\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k\/GSMH oran\u0131n\u0131 tipik olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5 puan geni\u015fletti\u011fini; bunun da do\u011fal olarak rupiyi zay\u0131flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Daha ileri enerji arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturmak amac\u0131yla, uzun rupi y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n MCX ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 veride: Rupi USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 95,27\u2019ye gerilerken ADP zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Petrol iki haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 toparland\u0131. USD\/INR\u2019da 95,57 diren\u00e7; straddle\/put ve petrol call hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t