Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.250 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiyat, 18 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 4.300 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinden gerilemi\u015fti. Metal, Ocak\u2019tan bu yana en iyi haftal\u0131k performans\u0131na ilerliyor; ancak ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin de\u011fi\u015fken sinyaller ve ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisi \u00f6ncesindeki temkin, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, belirli gemileri k\u0131s\u0131tlayacak bir H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdi\u011fine y\u00f6nelik haberler ile Suudi ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lara dair tazelenen endi\u015feler, jeopolitik riski y\u00fcksek tutarken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi; bu da XAU\/USD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri de bask\u0131 unsuru oldu. CME FedWatch, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar Federal Rezerv\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar politika sinyali i\u00e7in istihdam verisini beklerken getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan genellikle tavan etkisi yarat\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi ile 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n kesi\u015fti\u011fi 4.165 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; RSI 61,29\u2019da, MACD ise pozitif b\u00f6lgede. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.300 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.414, 4.525, 4.683 ve 4.884 dolar olarak belirtilirken; destekler 4.265, 4.165, 4.151 ve 3.943 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
7 A\u011fustos 2026 itibar\u0131yla alt\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcn 4.250 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini izlerken, piyasada jeopolitik gerilimler ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin istikrarl\u0131 bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor; bu da Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirebilir. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80 olarak g\u00f6stermesiyle, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde t\u0131rmanan gerilimi de izliyoruz. Bu gerilimler, Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini bu ay yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmaya zorluyor ve bu durum getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131yor. Arz zinciri riskleri ile s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00e7arp\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda y\u00fcksek volatilite beklemesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, alt\u0131n 4.300 dolardaki kritik direnci net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fmad\u0131k\u00e7a, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, beklenen yatay-bant hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in iron condor veya bear call spread gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 61 civar\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m e\u015fi\u011fine yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, fiyat hareketi genellikle maj\u00f6r Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyeleri yak\u0131n\u0131nda ivme kaybediyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan makro verilerin bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi halinde, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerin belirlenmesi i\u00e7in 4.165 dolardaki kilit destek ve 4.151 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmesini korursa, 4.300 dolar direncine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli kontratlar (short futures) kullan\u0131m\u0131, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli bir yap\u0131 sunabilir. Piyasa bug\u00fcnk\u00fc istihdam verilerini sindirip Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerini \u015fekillendirirken esnek kalmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik: 4.250 dolar \u00fcst\u00fc tutundu, 4.300\u2019den geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Jeopolitik risk y\u00fcksek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve Fed\u2019in %80 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t