UOB, USD\/CNH\u2019nin zay\u0131f bir e\u011filimi korudu\u011funu; ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 24 saat i\u00e7inde 6,7420\u2019deki deste\u011fi test edebilece\u011fini, ancak bu seviyenin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sarkman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fini belirtti. Parite 6,7450\u20136,7500 gibi dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,01 art\u0131\u015fla 6,7482\u2019de kapanarak k\u0131sa vadeli direnci 6,7550 seviyesinde b\u0131rakt\u0131. Fiyat hareketi sakin seyretti, ancak y\u00f6nsel ton hafif negatif kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
1\u20133 haftal\u0131k ufukta banka, 6,7640\u2019\u0131n diren\u00e7 olarak korunmas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla 6,7300\u2019e do\u011fru kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme beklentisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son g\u00fcncellemede 03 A\u011fustos\u2019a (spot 6,7490) at\u0131f yap\u0131larak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kan\u0131t\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. 1\u20133 ayl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun temkinli bi\u00e7imde geli\u015fti\u011fi de\u011ferlendirilirken, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanma i\u00e7in 6,8430\u2019daki 21 haftal\u0131k EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m gerekti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CNH\u2019de alttan alta zay\u0131f bir ton g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede 6,7420\u2019ye do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri hedefleme f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu taban\u0131n alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fundan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in 6,7400 ve alt\u0131ndaki seviyelerde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu yazabilir. Yuana y\u00f6nelik bu temkinli iyimserlik, \u00c7in\u2019in dayan\u0131kl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileriyle de destekleniyor; ihracat\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %8,6 artmas\u0131, para biriminin tutunmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 seviyesi 6,7640 a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece 6,7300\u2019e do\u011fru kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. Bu yava\u015f a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, vadesi a\u011fustos sonu olan ba\u015faba\u015f seviyeye yak\u0131n (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu pozisyonlanma, yuan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girerken \u015firket kaynakl\u0131 d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleriyle s\u0131kl\u0131kla destek buldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden tarihsel mevsimsellik e\u011filimleriyle de uyumlu.<\/p>\n\n
Daha uzun, bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ufukta ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumda temkinli i\u015faretler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak ger\u00e7ek bir toparlanman\u0131n teyidi i\u00e7in 6,8430\u2019daki 21 haftal\u0131k \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) net bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu olas\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 makro riskten korunma amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 bulundurmal\u0131. Bu koruyucu duru\u015f, s\u00fcregelen getiri ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli; nitekim \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemek i\u00e7in bir y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi ana faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 (LPR) %3,35\u2019te sabit tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar dikkat: UOB\u2019ye g\u00f6re USD\/CNH zay\u0131f; 6,7420 test edilebilir ama kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m zor. 6,7640 alt\u0131nda 1\u20133 haftada 6,7300 hedefi. Toparlanma i\u00e7in 6,8430 EMA \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t