AUD\/USD seansta %0,36 gerilerken ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n genel \u00e7apta g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle 0,7000 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,28 y\u00fckselerek 100,00 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avustralya dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015fi tersine \u00e7evirdi. Ham petrol\u00fcn ralli yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda bu hareket ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; petrol, Tahran\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmanca g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ABD, \u0130srail ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelere ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemilerin \u00f6nerilen bir anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015finin engellenebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik haberlerin ard\u0131ndan %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla 77,67 dolara y\u00fckseldi. K\u00fcresel petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin etkilenebilece\u011fi bu geli\u015fme, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimi i\u00e7in destekten ziyade b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski olarak fiyatland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerine de \u00e7evrildi. Temmuz\u2019da ihracat\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %27\u2019den %22,2\u2019ye yava\u015flamas\u0131, ithalat\u0131n ise %36\u2019ya k\u0131yasla %27,9 artmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. D\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n 125,62 milyar dolardan 107 milyar dolara daralaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. ABD\u2019de ise cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, dolarda ek kazan\u0131mlar i\u00e7in potansiyel kataliz\u00f6r olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde AUD\/USD 0,7031\u2019de; 100 periyotluk SMA 0,7001\u2019de destek, 20 periyotluk SMA 0,7035\u2019te diren\u00e7 konumunda. RSI 50 civar\u0131nda seyrederken diren\u00e7ler 0,7033\u20130,7034 ard\u0131ndan 0,7044 ve 0,7049; destekler 0,7023 ve 0,7001 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD paritesinde kritik 0,7000 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur 0,7001\u2019deki 100 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmu\u015f olsa da 100,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar Endeksi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. 0,7000\u2019in hemen alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, piyasan\u0131n bu yap\u0131sal taban\u0131 test etti\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sevkiyat tehditleri nedeniyle 77,67 dolara s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f olsa da bu y\u00fckseli\u015f emtia ihracat\u0131na destek olmaktan ziyade k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde bir vergi etkisi yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak k\u00fcresel ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k riskleri artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flar; zira uluslararas\u0131 ticaretin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fcksek hassasiyet g\u00f6sterir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile Avustralya dolar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki tipik korelasyondaki bu bozulmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Buna ek olarak \u00c7in\u2019de ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %22,2\u2019ye yava\u015flamas\u0131, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131ndan gelen sanayi talebinde zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) b\u00f6lgesel yava\u015flama ortam\u0131nda politika faizini %4,1\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131yla, kurda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. Bu yatay-bant ortam\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in 0,7035 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, dolar\u0131n 100,00 psikolojik seviyesinin \u00fczerinde belirgin \u015fekilde ivmelenmesine yol a\u00e7abilecek en \u00f6nemli belirsizlik unsuru. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirerek Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131f \u00c7in talebi ile y\u00fcksek ABD getirileri aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc veri sonras\u0131 beklenen sert k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar endeksi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken AUD\/USD 0,70 \u00fczerinde tutunsa da bask\u0131 art\u0131yor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski, \u00c7in ticaretinde yava\u015flama ve ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50032,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t