Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi (DJIA), 4 ve 5 A\u011fustos\u2019ta s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir iki seansl\u0131k d\u00f6nem kaydetti; hem a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f hem de kapan\u0131\u015f, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 2 standart sapmal\u0131 \u00fcst Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 5 A\u011fustos mum \u00e7ubu\u011fu \u201ckayan y\u0131ld\u0131z\u201d (shooting star) olarak olu\u015ftu ve kapan\u0131\u015f da \u00fcst band\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kald\u0131. K\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6stergeler a\u015f\u0131r\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131: RSI-5 yakla\u015f\u0131k 81, tam stokastik yakla\u015f\u0131k 92 seviyesindeydi; hacim ise uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bir sonraki seansta endeks daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek yeniden \u00fcst Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7ine sarkt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana Dow ve ETF vekili DIA \u00fczerinde yap\u0131lan tarihsel taramalarda yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 benzer \u00f6rnek bulundu\u011fu ve takip eden 1 ila 20 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc pencerelerinde hafif-orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bulgular\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa geni\u015fli\u011fi, NYSE McClellan Osilat\u00f6r\u00fc (Oran-D\u00fczeltilmi\u015f) \u00fczerinden ek ba\u011flam sunuyor. Osilat\u00f6r, kal\u0131c\u0131 diplerle ili\u015fkilendirilen seviyelere ula\u015fmad\u0131; bu seviyeler en az -60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131 ve tercihen -80 ila -100 band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Bunun yerine n\u00f6tr seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki n\u00f6tr fazlar, sonradan s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenen y\u00fckseli\u015flerle \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da son fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn geni\u015f kat\u0131l\u0131mla desteklenmeden olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kurulum, bir soluklanma ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme ihtimalini canl\u0131 tutuyor; \u00f6zellikle kayan y\u0131ld\u0131z mumunun dip seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma veya orta Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019na (20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama) do\u011fru bir s\u00fcz\u00fclme yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7erisinde Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019nde k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 5 A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u00fcst Bollinger Band\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olu\u015fan nadir \u201ckayan y\u0131ld\u0131z\u201d formasyonunu takiben, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc veya n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejilerinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. DIA ETF \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonu almak veya bear call spread kurmak, beklenen ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ften (mean reversion) faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak Dow\u2019un \u00fcst 2 standart sapmal\u0131 Bollinger Band\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen \u00fczerinde ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00fcnler ge\u00e7irmesi halinde, sonraki 5 ila 10 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc derecede y\u00fcksektir. K\u0131sa vadeli RSI\u2019\u0131n 80\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi benzer a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m d\u00f6nemlerinde endeks, tarihsel ortalamada destek bulmadan \u00f6nce %2 ila %4 aras\u0131nda bir geri \u00e7ekilme (drawdown) ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu istatistiksel avantaj, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla call opsiyonu satmay\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca piyasadaki volatilite endeksinin son d\u00f6nemde tarihsel dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini de dikkate almal\u0131y\u0131z; bu, opsiyon primlerinin al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6rece ucuz oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. McClellan Osilat\u00f6r\u00fc piyasa geni\u015fli\u011finin zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu teyit etti\u011finden, bu rallinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde h\u0131zlanmas\u0131ndan ziyade duraksamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131 veya put debit spread, mevcut uzun portf\u00f6yleri ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in makul maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem sunar.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n hedefi, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda orta Bollinger Band\u0131 konumundaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya do\u011fru bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Piyasa teknik kurulumun tersine hareket ederse riski s\u0131k\u0131 y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na stop-loss seviyeleri 5 A\u011fustos zirvesinin hemen \u00fczerinde konumland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 15 g\u00fcn boyunca k\u00e2r\u0131 kademeli realize etmek, k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flemi gere\u011finden fazla uzatmadan beklenen s\u00fcz\u00fclmeden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow Jones\u2019ta alarm zilleri: Endeks iki g\u00fcn \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kapand\u0131, 5 A\u011fustos\u2019ta \u201ckayan y\u0131ld\u0131z\u201d ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m (RSI>80) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Tarihsel \u00f6rnekler 5-10 g\u00fcnde %2-4 geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret; DIA\u2019da put\/bear call spread g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t