Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yatay seyretti; GBP\/USD, 1,3404\u2019teki dip seviyeden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kuzey Amerika i\u015flemlerinde 1,3466 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Parite daha \u00f6nce 1,3460\u2019a yak\u0131n seyrederken, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc 1,3486 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi ve 100 piplik bir bant i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k kald\u0131. Fiyat hareketi, 1,3500 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hamlelerde ise 1,3400 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerinde destek bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporuna oda\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirdi. Avrupa\u2019da ise ABD\u2019li ve \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerden bir anla\u015fma ihtimaline ili\u015fkin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k mesajlar\u0131n tedirginli\u011fi art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve dolara destek vermesiyle sterlin 1,3460\u2019a do\u011fru hafif geriledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca seans\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 planlanan ABD Haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 da izledi.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri yakla\u015f\u0131rken, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin 1,3400 ile 1,3500 aras\u0131nda dar bir bantta istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, yakla\u015fan NFP raporu sindirilirken ani k\u0131r\u0131lmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak, bu parite 100 piplik bir aral\u0131kta konsolide oldu\u011funda, opsiyon ima edilen volatilitesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen hareketi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlama e\u011filiminde oluyor; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli straddle stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bunu \u00e7er\u00e7evelemek gerekirse, ABD\u2019de haftal\u0131k ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde 220 bin civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Federal Rezerv\u2019in bir sonraki politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 canl\u0131 tutan olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6te yandan, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika faizini %5,0 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131, daha zay\u0131f bir ABD dolar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda sterlini destekledi. Bu makroekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, GBP\/USD\u2019yi mevcut konsolidasyon b\u00f6lgesinden yak\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kmaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in, NFP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n hemen sonras\u0131na vadelenen at-the-money\u2019a yak\u0131n strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131; y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 1,3500 \u00fczerinde net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde 1,3620 hedefiyle uzun pozisyon arayabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 1,3400 destek taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma, 1,3250\u2019ye do\u011fru daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye i\u015faret eder; bu senaryoda savunmac\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7meyi tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na dair dalgal\u0131 s\u00f6ylemler gibi jeopolitik geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira bu ba\u015fl\u0131klar riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini h\u0131zla tetikleyebilir. K\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki ani de\u011fi\u015fimler, mevcut d\u00f6viz korelasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kolayca bozabilir ve ima edilen volatiliteyi s\u0131\u00e7ratabilir. Y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, bu y\u00fcksek riskli haftalarda sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullanmas\u0131 \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin alarm veriyor: GBP\/USD 1,3400\u20131,3500 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam\u0131 ve NFP \u00f6ncesi volatilite beklentisi artt\u0131; straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 1,3500 \u00fcst\u00fc 1,3620, 1,3400 alt\u0131 1,3250. Jeopolitik risk dolar lehine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t