Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti\u011fi %4\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc de s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 4.260 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve yumu\u015fayan ABD Dolar\u0131 ile gerileyen Hazine tahvil getirilerinin toparlanmay\u0131 desteklemesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesi etraf\u0131nda tutundu; fiyatlar ham petrolle birlikte y\u00fckseldi. Jeopolitik cephede, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Kazem Gharibabadi bir anla\u015fman\u0131n su yolunu otomatik olarak yeniden a\u00e7mayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir K\u00f6rfez yetkilisi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar \u0130ran\u2013Umman anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimalini %50 olarak de\u011ferlendirdi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201ckarma\u015f\u0131k\u201d oldu\u011funu belirtirken, Reuters Tahran\u2019a gelen trafi\u011fin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc verebilecek bir \u00f6neri g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fini, Washington\u2019\u0131n ise bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 defalarca reddetti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti: \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 202 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 199 bin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken, Challenger \u0130\u015ften \u00c7\u0131karmalar\u0131 45,8 binden 33,4 bine geriledi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, artan i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalardan ziyade yava\u015flayan i\u015fe al\u0131mlar \u00fczerinden \u201cso\u011fuma\u201d olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131; bu durum Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek getirisi olmayan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (alt\u0131n\u0131) destekledi. Odak, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi: Reuters anketi, Haziran\u2019daki 57 bin art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Temmuz\u2019da 80 bin art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %4,2\u2019de sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD 4.253 dolar civar\u0131nda; 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA (4.146 dolar) ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019n\u0131n (4.073 dolar) \u00fczerinde. Destek 4.248 ve 4.232 dolarda; RSI 72; diren\u00e7 4.276 ve 4.304 dolar seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131nki kritik Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu \u00f6ncesinde opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 kullanarak k\u0131sa vadede sert dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n 4.260 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve \u0130ran\u2019daki kritik su yolu m\u00fczakereleri Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir son tarihe yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015fken, z\u0131mni volatilitenin s\u0131\u00e7ramaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki benzer jeopolitik darbo\u011fazlar 48 saat gibi dar bir zaman penceresinde hem alt\u0131nda hem de ham petrolde ani %3\u2013%5 e\u015f zamanl\u0131 hareketleri tetikledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu ve alt\u0131n\u0131n 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 4.146 dolar\u0131n rahat bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, prim geliri elde etmek i\u00e7in bull put spread kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. 4.232 dolardaki sa\u011flam destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndan put satarak, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir d\u00fczeltme ya\u015fansa bile riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken gelir yaratmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu strateji, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n kademeli bi\u00e7imde so\u011fumas\u0131yla birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bu sonbaharda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren CME FedWatch verileriyle de destekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte mevcut G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 72 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fundan, mevcut fiyattan do\u011frudan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu tercihinden ka\u00e7\u0131nmak gerekir. Bunun yerine, 4.304 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ya da 4.248 dolar deste\u011fine do\u011fru sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclmeden yeni uzun t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131na ba\u015flamamay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, teyitli bir makro tetikleyici olmadan alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 zirvelerde kovalamak (chasing) durumunun, piyasan\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir konsolidasyon evresine girmesi halinde prim erimesine (premium decay) yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: XAU\/USD 4.260 dolarla 7 haftan\u0131n zirvesinde. Zay\u0131f dolar, d\u00fc\u015fen getiriler ve \u0130ran su yolu riski fiyat\u0131 destekliyor. Cuma NFP \u00f6ncesi volatilite ve straddle\/bull put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t