Rabobank, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin s\u00f6yleminde \u201csecuronomics\u201dten \u201cvibonomics\u201de kaymas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenin artmas\u0131 halinde, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta hanehalk\u0131 talebinin ge\u00e7ici bir ivme kazanabilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Y\u00fcksek tasarruflar ve zay\u0131f seyreden duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u00fcketime y\u00f6nelik bir tampon olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ifade edilirken, banka olas\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 ko\u015fullu ve zamanla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ise verimlilik, \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, konut, enerji ve reel \u00fccretleri etkileyen yap\u0131sal reformlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131lda hanehalk\u0131 tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131yla birlikte ortalama %9,4 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekliyor; bu da ilave 150 milyar sterlinlik tasarruf birikimine i\u015faret ediyor. Tasarruf oran\u0131nda 1 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, ithalat s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k GSYH\u2019nin %0,5\u2019i kadar ek talebe kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelece\u011fini; tasarruflar\u0131n pandemi \u00f6ncesi normale yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak kal\u0131c\u0131 3 puanl\u0131k bir gerilemenin ise GSYH seviyesini yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. 2029 se\u00e7imlerine giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te bunun, %1,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomiyi ge\u00e7ici olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyormu\u015f gibi g\u00f6sterebilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n 150 milyar sterlini bulan dev tasarruf tamponunu k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa hareketleri i\u00e7in bir kataliz\u00f6r olarak yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fck\u00fcmetin iyimserli\u011fe y\u00f6nelen s\u00f6ylemi t\u00fcketici duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131yla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerse, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede bulunan hanehalk\u0131 tasarruf oran\u0131nda ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Sterlin\u2019de ve i\u00e7 pazara daha duyarl\u0131 FTSE 250 endeksinde uzun (long) pozisyonlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faizleri y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda ani bir dalga enflasyonun yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131na ve ilave faiz indirimlerinin \u00f6telenmesine yol a\u00e7ma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu beklentiyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle k\u0131sa vadeli SONIA vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f (short) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli talebin beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli gilt getirilerinin de y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, enerji ve konutta derin yap\u0131sal reformlar olmaks\u0131z\u0131n duyarl\u0131l\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir. Bu yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimler hayata ge\u00e7mezse, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k yeniden bir t\u00fcketim durgunlu\u011funa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilir ve uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez h\u00e2le gelebilir. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, savunmac\u0131 t\u00fcketici davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcama (consumer discretionary) hisselerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut seviyelerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) olan put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cVibonomics\u201d r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 \u0130ngiltere\u2019de t\u00fcketimi s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131r m\u0131? Rabobank, g\u00fcven artarsa 150 milyar sterlinlik tasarruf tamponunun ge\u00e7ici talep yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin reformlara ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t