Yapay zek\u00e2 i\u015flemi, model ve \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m maliyetlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle k\u0131tl\u0131ktan ekonomiye do\u011fru kay\u0131yor; a\u00e7\u0131k kaynak sistemler, bulut platformlar\u0131 ve API\u2019ler \u00fczerinden benimsemeyi yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken baz\u0131 geli\u015ftiriciler ve donan\u0131m tedarik\u00e7ilerinin fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 rekabet fiyat\u0131 ve verimlili\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor; Alibaba en b\u00fcy\u00fck modelini piyasaya s\u00fcrerken DeepSeek ultra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli fiyatlama sunuyor ve \u201cyeterince iyi\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131r performansa \u00fcst\u00fcn geldi\u011fi kullan\u0131m alanlar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ediyor. Hiperskalerler kapasite in\u015fa etmeye devam ediyor ancak al\u0131m taraf\u0131 g\u00f6rev ba\u015f\u0131na maliyete odakland\u0131k\u00e7a tedarik daha se\u00e7ici hale geliyor; Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta ve Oracle i\u00e7in piyasa uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131 capex tahmini 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 485 milyar dolardan temmuz itibar\u0131yla kabaca 730 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; UBS ise 2026\u2019da %76 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 2027\u2019de %25\u2019e ve 2028\u2019de %6\u2019ya yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Talep, azami GPU yo\u011funlu\u011fundan ziyade \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmi\u015f h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131lara, \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m optimizasyonuna, a\u011f ekipmanlar\u0131na, g\u00fc\u00e7 ve so\u011futmaya kayabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Kore a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha \u201ctemiz\u201d pozisyonlanma taktiksel bir toparlanmay\u0131 destekleyebilir; ancak bu yeni bir k\u00e2r d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc garanti etmiyor. J.P. Morgan kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 ETF \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesinin tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve hedge fonlar\u0131n kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azalt\u0131m\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 seviyesine geldi\u011fini tahmin ediyor; yine de risk, talep zirve yapmadan bellek beklentilerinin zirve yapmas\u0131. TrendForce h\u00e2l\u00e2 DRAM\u2019da arz a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bekliyor; talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2027\u2019ye kadar arz\u0131 a\u015fabilir, ancak HBM ve ileri seviye sunucu DRAM\u2019\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kal\u0131rken emtia DRAM ve NAND daha d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel seyredebilir. Ana mesaj, getirilerin yaln\u0131zca ilk faz\u0131n darbo\u011fazlar\u0131na de\u011fil; da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m, proprietary (sahipli) veri ve platformlara, bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda verimli altyap\u0131ya da akaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n
Yapay zek\u00e2 i\u015flemi ham altyap\u0131 k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan maliyet verimlili\u011fine ge\u00e7erken opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. \u00c7ip i\u00e7in \u201cpanik al\u0131m\u201d d\u00f6nemi so\u011fuduk\u00e7a, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin ba\u015fl\u0131ca donan\u0131m tedarik\u00e7ilerinde ima edilen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Hiperskaler sermaye harcamas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flarken, bu ge\u00e7i\u015ften faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerine oda\u011f\u0131n kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son sekt\u00f6r verileri, Microsoft, Alphabet ve Meta gibi teknoloji devlerinin toplam sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 730 milyar dolara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; ancak b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l %25\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yava\u015flama, donan\u0131m call opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek primin gerek\u00e7elendirilmesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Daha ucuz yapay zek\u00e2 modellerini ba\u015far\u0131yla paraya \u00e7eviren mega-cap yaz\u0131l\u0131m ve dijital platformlarda bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerinin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcney Kore\u2019ye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, y\u00fcksek bant geni\u015flikli bellek (HBM) taraf\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kalsa da, bellek beklentilerinde zirvenin KOSPI fiyatlamas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel d\u00f6ng\u00fcler, bellek hisselerinde de\u011ferlemelerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman fiili \u015firket gelirlerinden birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek \u00f6nce zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in de\u011ferleme daralmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck bellek \u00fcreticilerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya ay\u0131 put spread\u2019lerini tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Sekt\u00f6r oda\u011f\u0131 dev e\u011fitim modellerinden daha ucuz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ma kayd\u0131k\u00e7a, \u00f6zel silikon ve ihtisasla\u015fm\u0131\u015f altyap\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleri ivme kazan\u0131yor. Bu kayma, orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli a\u011f ve g\u00fc\u00e7 y\u00f6netimi \u015firketlerindeki artan opsiyon hacmine de yans\u0131yor. Bu trendi, verimlilik odakl\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten fayda sa\u011flayan se\u00e7ili altyap\u0131 tedarik\u00e7ilerinde put satarak yakalayabilir; istikrarl\u0131 nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00fczerinden prim toplayabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde ima edilen volatilite \u201cskew\u201du son d\u00f6nemde call\u2019lara k\u0131yasla put\u2019lar\u0131 desteklemeye ba\u015flad\u0131; bu, kurumsal oyuncular\u0131n donan\u0131m maruziyetini aktif bi\u00e7imde hedge etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da saf donan\u0131m momentumu \u00fczerinden \u201ckolay para\u201d d\u00f6neminin \u015fimdilik geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu donan\u0131m isimlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli takvim spread\u2019leri (calendar spread) i\u015flemeyi, y\u00f6nsel bir pozisyona girmeden y\u00fcksek primlerden faydalanman\u0131n yolu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7inli teknoloji \u015firketlerinin a\u00e7\u0131k kaynak modellerde agresif fiyatlamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte maliyet deflasyonunu h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor ve model geli\u015ftiricilerinin marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu fiyat sava\u015f\u0131, yaln\u0131zca yapay zek\u00e2 geli\u015ftiricilerine odaklanan \u015firketlerde uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 son derece riskli ve spek\u00fclatif hale getiriyor. Bunun yerine, daha ucuz bu modelleri kolayca entegre ederek kendi k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek k\u00f6kl\u00fc kurumsal yaz\u0131l\u0131m platformlar\u0131nda uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131da k\u0131tl\u0131ktan verimlili\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fcyor: a\u00e7\u0131k kaynak ve \u00c7in rekabeti fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken donan\u0131m marjlar\u0131 bask\u0131lan\u0131yor. Capex b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015fl\u0131yor; opsiyonda hedge, yaz\u0131l\u0131m\/platform spreadleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50059,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t