USD\/JPY, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 157,80 civar\u0131na kadar \u00e7\u0131karak \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 uzatt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan\u2014ABD-Japonya\u2019n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ve d\u00fczensiz hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 ortak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesini takiben\u2014yen, k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla bir miktar zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 yen g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 olup olamayaca\u011f\u0131na dair ek kan\u0131t ararken, oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yurti\u00e7inde politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131na \u00e7eviriyor. Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, \u00fclkenin ABD ile birlikte ek d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi yapmaktan \u201c\u00e7ekinmeyece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ise, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak temmuz ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisinin belirleyici olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
BNY Mellon, koordineli m\u00fcdahalenin \u201czaman kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ancak yabanc\u0131 yen varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Kurum, pozisyonlanman\u0131n net uzun (long) tarafta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fakat 2026 ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 seviyelerinin alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131, mali konsolidasyon ve yap\u0131sal reformlar olmadan yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin zor oldu\u011funu ekledi. Varl\u0131k da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Japon hisse senetlerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde pasif ve yetersiz destekli olarak nitelendirirken, Japon devlet tahvillerinin (JGB) en net marjinal talebi \u00e7ekti\u011fini ifade etti. Teknik olarak USD\/JPY 157,83 civar\u0131nda ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) 160,55 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bulunuyor; diren\u00e7 160,55\u2019te, destek ise iki ay\u0131n dibi 155,23 ve ard\u0131ndan 23 \u015eubat dibi olan 154,00 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde 157,80 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti\u011fi ortamda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 160,55\u2019in alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, k\u0131sa vadeli momentum a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130ki ayl\u0131k dip olan 155,00 civar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon stratejilerinin kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimimiz, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fini savunma konusundaki kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f isteklili\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Bu seviye tarihsel olarak, \u00f6nceki kur kurtarma hamlelerinde harcanan 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar dolar) gibi \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fcdahalelerle korunmu\u015ftu. Tokyo\u2019nun ABD ile ortak m\u00fcdahalelere haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yak\u0131n zamanda yeniden teyit etmesi nedeniyle, 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 160,55 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken prim toplamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa call spread\u2019lerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n
Yar\u0131nki istihdam verisine ili\u015fkin yak\u0131n vade riskinde, her iki y\u00f6nde keskin bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 s\u00fcrprizlerinin ve e\u015fzamanl\u0131 merkez bankas\u0131 tehditlerinin, saatler i\u00e7inde 200 ila 300 piplik hareketleri kolayl\u0131kla tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Verinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde, 155,23 ve potansiyel olarak 154,00\u2019daki kritik destek seviyelerine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler yar\u0131nki NFP\u2019de: USD\/JPY 157,80\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; m\u00fcdahale etkisi sorgulan\u0131yor. Tokyo 160\u2019\u0131 savunmaya haz\u0131r. BNY Mellon kal\u0131c\u0131 yen g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in BOJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 diyor; destek 155,23\/154,00.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t