Hindistan rupisi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir miktar zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/INR, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve ay\u0131n yeni dip seviyesi olan 94,83\u2019ten tepki vermesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,22\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,2 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.200 Rs seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 7.078 Rs\u2019ye yak\u0131n seyrini korudu. \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fe ili\u015fkin bir \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi nihai hale getirmeye yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir K\u00f6rfez yetkilisi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar anla\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %50 olarak de\u011ferlendirdi. Ayr\u0131 haberlerde ise K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz rotas\u0131 ve Aden K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fczerinden aksama riskinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n
Politika taraf\u0131nda Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI) repo faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da %5,25\u2019te sabit tuttu, cari y\u0131l enflasyon tahminini %5\u2019e indirdi ve \u00e7ekirdek bask\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte %5,9\u2019a y\u00fckselebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Temmuz ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine \u00e7evrildi; TD Securities, Haziran\u2019daki 57 binin ard\u0131ndan 70 binlik art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,2\u2019de yatay kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR 95,16 civar\u0131nda, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrederken RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 42 seviyesinde; diren\u00e7 95,60 ve 96,00, destek ise 94,83 ve 94,15 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 95,60 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcstel hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini koruyor. Parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 94,83\u2019ten 95,22\u2019ye tepki verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 95,60 direnci yak\u0131n\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a etkili bir strateji olabilir. 94,83 deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesi olan 94,15\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca piyasan\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere tepki vermesiyle MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20,5 milyon varil petrol ta\u015f\u0131yan dev bir k\u00fcresel ticaret hatt\u0131 olup k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Umman ve \u0130ran seyr\u00fcsefer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 nihai hale getirirse, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n dip seviyesi olan 7.078 Rs\u2019ye do\u011fru yeniden geri \u00e7ekilebilir; bu da A\u011fustos vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Yurti\u00e7i tarafta RBI\u2019nin repo faizini %5,25\u2019te tutma karar\u0131, yerel para birimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan istikrarl\u0131 bir zemin sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak RBI, 670 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczeriyle rekor seviyelere ula\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00f6viz rezervlerini, rupide ani de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kulland\u0131. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck finansal tampon, USD\/INR\u2019de olas\u0131 sert y\u00fckseli\u015flerin muhtemelen merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve bant hareketine dayal\u0131 stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; verinin 70 bin civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor. Beklentiden zay\u0131f bir istihdam raporu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bask\u0131layarak USD\/INR paritesini 94,83 deste\u011finin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na itebilir. Bu riske kar\u015f\u0131, hafta sonu \u00f6ncesinde USD\/INR\u2019de \u201cparaya yak\u0131n\u201d (near-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fuma i\u015faretlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131yor: USD\/INR 94,83 dipten 95,22\u2019ye tepki verdi. Petrol jeopolitikle oynak. RBI faizi %5,25\u2019te tuttu. G\u00f6zler ABD NFP\u2019de; 95,60 kritik diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t