Alt\u0131n, m\u00fctevaz\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerle i\u015flem g\u00f6rse de 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorland\u0131; 18 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine dokunduktan sonra, ABD Dolar\u0131 talebinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmayla geri \u00e7ekildi. Fed yetkililerinin enflasyon risklerini yeniden vurgulamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 dolar destek bulurken, piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %80 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Daha zay\u0131f ABD verileri ise hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131: ADP, Temmuz\u2019da \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 40 bin oldu\u011funu (\u00f6nceki 95 bin) g\u00f6sterdi; ISM Hizmet PMI 54,0\u2019tan 54,1\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselse de 54,5 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bunun \u00fczerine Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %67\u2019den %55\u2019e gerilerken, dikkatler art\u0131k Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de fiyatlamaya etki etti. Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Husiler, Yanbu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda bir Suudi petrol tankerine ve Aden K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde bir ba\u015fka hedefe f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00fczenlediklerini bildirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir uzla\u015f\u0131 umudu ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fi beklentisi petrol\u00fc birka\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n tuttu; \u0130ran, Umman ile bir taslak anla\u015fmay\u0131 nihai hale getirdi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Teknik tarafta ise k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n, 17 Mart\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; MACD 29,52 ve RSI 61,28 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda %23,6 geri \u00e7ekilme seviyesi ve 4.500 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, destek 4.157,24 dolar ve 3.939,05 dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer geri \u00e7ekilme seviyeleri 4.678,89 dolar, 4.853,49 dolar ve 5.102,07 dolar.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu \u00f6ncesinde 4.300 dolar seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011fu bug\u00fcn temkinli davranmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, NFP\u2019deki \u00f6nemli s\u00fcrprizlerin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck oynakl\u0131k %1,2 ile %1,8 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor; bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 yakla\u015fan veriye kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas hale getiriyor. \u0130stihdam verileri i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten so\u011fuyup so\u011fumad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirene kadar, b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemenin daha uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusunda ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir diplomatik ilerleme, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutabilir; bu da geleneksel olarak enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131r. M\u00fczakerelerin ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 mevcut direncinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, b\u00f6lgesel gerilimlerin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 durumunda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Zay\u0131f ADP istihdam verisi sonras\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %55\u2019e gerilemesiyle, makro ortam yeniden faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n lehine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, yava\u015flayan ekonomik verilerin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri %60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011finde, alt\u0131n takip eden ayda ortalama %4,2 y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Daha az \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019den fayda sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla bull call spread kurarak bu de\u011fi\u015fime g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik olarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131 olan 4.157,24 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel momentuma i\u015faret ediyor. Fiyat\u0131n 4.300 dolar direncini net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olan 4.500 dolara do\u011fru bir hareket bekliyoruz. Bu trendden yararlanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla 4.150 dolar civar\u0131ndaki destek taban\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda put opsiyonu yazmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler NFP\u2019de: 4.300 dolar \u00fczeri tutunamayan fiyat, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 dolar toparlanmas\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekildi. Zay\u0131f ADP faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %55\u2019e indirirken, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t