{"id":52431,"date":"2026-08-06T06:52:03","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T06:52:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-chf-abd-istihdam-verileri-oncesinde-guvenli-limana-talebin-azalmasiyla-08060-yakinlarinda-cok-yillik-dip-seviyeleri-gordu\/"},"modified":"2026-08-06T06:52:03","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T06:52:03","slug":"usd-chf-abd-istihdam-verileri-oncesinde-guvenli-limana-talebin-azalmasiyla-08060-yakinlarinda-cok-yillik-dip-seviyeleri-gordu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-chf-abd-istihdam-verileri-oncesinde-guvenli-limana-talebin-azalmasiyla-08060-yakinlarinda-cok-yillik-dip-seviyeleri-gordu\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF, ABD \u0130stihdam Verileri \u00d6ncesinde G\u00fcvenli Limana Talebin Azalmas\u0131yla 0,8060 Yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda \u00c7ok Y\u0131ll\u0131k Dip Seviyeleri G\u00f6rd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF, g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin azalmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de geriledi; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,8060 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden bir sevkiyat rotas\u0131 \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ortak a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n son a\u015famada kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparland\u0131. \u00d6nerilen koridorun iki ila d\u00f6rt ay s\u00fcrmesi beklenirken, Tahran bunun su yolunun tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD\u2019de ADP verisi, Temmuz\u2019da \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 44 bin oldu\u011funu (Haziran: 98 bin) g\u00f6sterdi ve 70 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalarak oda\u011f\u0131 Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ile Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n

Fed taraf\u0131ndaki de\u011ferlendirmeler de havay\u0131 \u015fekillendirdi. Daly\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 FXS Speechtracker\u2019da 5,4\/10 puan ald\u0131; bu seviye 5,6\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. FXS Fed Sentiment Index ise 2,23 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 138,69\u2019a geriledi ancak 100\u2019l\u00fck \u015fahin e\u015fik seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon Temmuz\u2019da %0,4\u2019e gerileyerek (Haziran: %0,5) d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc; \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) politika faizini %0\u2019da sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafif bir art\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle tezat olu\u015fturdu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, frank\u0131n daha uzun vadeli arka plan\u0131nda 2011\u20132015 d\u00f6nemindeki EUR\u2019e sabitleme (peg) rejimi ve bunun sona erdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde hareket yer al\u0131rken, EUR-CHF korelasyonunu %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steren modeller de dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcvenli Liman Ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n Zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve ABD Verileriyle K\u0131sa Vadede Volatilite<\/h3>\n

USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8060 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 dip seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sevkiyat endi\u015felerinin hafiflemesi ve ABD istihdam verilerindeki so\u011fuman\u0131n parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7ici \u0130ran-Umman sevkiyat anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azalt\u0131rken, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019ndaki son rallinin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve yar\u0131nki ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli sert dalgalanmalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Temmuz ADP verisinin 44 bin ile hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor ve tarihsel olarak daha zay\u0131f bir dolar i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olabiliyor. Bu ortamda, yakla\u015fan istihdam verileri etraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa tepkileri, ADP\u2019deki belirgin sapmalar\u0131n, NFP g\u00fcn\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilitenin opsiyonlar\u0131n ima etti\u011fi fiyatlamay\u0131 %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde a\u015fmas\u0131na s\u0131k\u00e7a yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

SNB Te\u015fvikleri, Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bu arada \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu beklenmedik \u015fekilde %0,4\u2019e gerileyerek SNB\u2019nin %2\u2019lik fiyat istikrar\u0131 hedefinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu durum, deflasyonu \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in SNB\u2019nin frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir motivasyona sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki agresif merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi d\u00f6nemlerini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda SNB kaynakl\u0131 ani bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Fed duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir miktar zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olsa da, politika endeksi 100 puan baz \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde \u015fahin b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da dolar\u0131n temel faiz\/getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. USD\/CHF\u2019nin belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgelerinde bulunmas\u0131 nedeniyle, buradan itibaren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc alana k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olabilir. Kalan k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar kes (stop-loss) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 ve uzun risk-reversal yap\u0131lar\u0131na kademeli ge\u00e7i\u015f yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF 0,8060\u2019ta dipte: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u0130ran-Umman haberleriyle artt\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi zay\u0131flad\u0131. ADP 44 binle dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. G\u00f6zler i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve NFP\u2019de; volatilite\/opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t