Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n yerel (onshore) piyasalar\u0131, Perry Warjiyo\u2019nun ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeni Bank Indonesia (BI) Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n atanmas\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Vekil Ba\u015fkan Destry Damayanti, politika faizi d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ara\u00e7lar ve IDR likiditesini \u00f6nceliklendirirken; dikkatler, bir sonraki y\u00f6netim ekibinin karma bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2013enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, zay\u0131flayan d\u0131\u015f denge ve bant i\u00e7inde seyreden USDIDR ortam\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir yol haritas\u0131 \u00e7izece\u011fine \u00e7evriliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Son seanslarda USDIDR 17.900\u201318.000 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, uzun vadeli g\u00f6sterge tahvil getirisi ABD faizlerindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeden y\u00f6n alarak 7,3% civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 2\u00c7 GSYH verisinin \u00fcretimin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 5,3% artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor; bu oran, enerji \u015fokuna ra\u011fmen 1\u00c7\u2019deki 5,6% seviyesinin alt\u0131nda. Bu tablo, Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi beklentilerini destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 17.900\u201318.000 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dengelenen USDIDR\u2019deki bant hareketinden faydalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Iron condor stratejileri veya k\u0131sa straddle ile k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite satarak, kur dalgalanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim toplanabilir. Tarihsel olarak Bank Indonesia\u2019daki liderlik ge\u00e7i\u015fleri d\u00f6nemlerinde merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi kur volatilitesini bask\u0131lama e\u011filimindedir; bu da prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a etkin k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n
Vekil ba\u015fkan\u0131n faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri ve rupi likiditesini \u00f6ncelemesiyle, dura\u011fan bir faiz ortam\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00f6sterge politika faizinin y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kla sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, k\u0131sa-orta vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz al\u0131m (receive fixed) taraf\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu n\u00f6tr duru\u015f, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge tahvil getirisinin 7,3% civar\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici bi\u00e7imde istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla zaten fiyatlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu politika molas\u0131, 2\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin 1\u00c7\u2019deki 5,6% seviyesinden 5,3%\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yava\u015flamas\u0131 beklense dahi, dayan\u0131kl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2013enflasyon bile\u015fimi taraf\u0131ndan destekleniyor. Bu sa\u011flam \u00fcretim g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in acil bir faiz indirimi bask\u0131s\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek bant hareketi tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu istikrarl\u0131 makro zemin \u00fczerinde faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde daha y\u00fcksek g\u00fcvenle i\u015flem yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n
Mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7 devri s\u00fcreci sorunsuz ilerlese de, yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n resm\u00ee atamas\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki kuyruk risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmeli. K\u0131sa volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ani sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya beklenmedik \u015fahin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, ucuz ve vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USDIDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli kurgu, istikrarl\u0131 getiri toplama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flarken ani siyasi haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00f6zler BI\u2019nin yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131nda: USDIDR 17.900\u201318.000 band\u0131nda, tahvil getirisi %7,3\u2019te. 2\u00c7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme %5,3 beklenirken faiz sabit senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; band-trade, k\u0131sa vol ve OTM call hedge \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t