\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131, ABD\u2019den gelen daha yumu\u015fak verilerin dolara bask\u0131 yapmas\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7ma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 izlemesiyle \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. USD\/CHF yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8078 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,18 geriledi. ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi temmuzda 44 bin artarak 70 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve hazirandaki 98 binden yava\u015flad\u0131; ISM Hizmetler PMI ise 54\u2019ten 54,1\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ancak 54,5 beklentisini kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyalinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Umman\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nerilen bir deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotas\u0131n\u0131n co\u011frafi koordinatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde mutabakata varmas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; ancak yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lman\u0131n otomatik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131rken, ABD taahh\u00fctlerinin yerine getirilmesi dahil ayr\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelere de at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131. Faiz beklentileri gev\u015fedi: CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %56\u2019ya g\u00f6sterdi (bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce %67) ve odak cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine \u00e7evrildi. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de T\u00dcFE temmuzda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131; hazirandaki %0,5\u2019ten gerileyerek enflasyonu SNB\u2019nin %0-%2 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n alt k\u0131sm\u0131na yak\u0131n tuttu ve politika faizinin s\u0131f\u0131rda kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini destekledi.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF paritesi tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek 0,8078 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n volatilitede art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD\u2019de ADP istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 44 bin ile zay\u0131f gelmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD put opsiyonu almak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal stratejileri kullanmak, dolarda olas\u0131 ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak NFP verisi bu yava\u015flamay\u0131 teyit ederse, USD\/CHF\u2019nin daha derin tarihsel destek seviyelerini test etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %56\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CME Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki ima edilen volatilite, zay\u0131f bir NFP verisinin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in kalan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bahislerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde silebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu senaryoda, tahvil getirilerindeki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerine call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda, Brent veya WTI ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejilerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin koordinasyon konusunda ilk iyimserlik petrol fiyatlar\u0131na bask\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olsa da, devam eden jeopolitik engeller g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aniden bozulmas\u0131 halinde sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Tarihsel olarak, bu kritik deniz ge\u00e7idindeki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n bile birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseltti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr; bu da mevcut ortamda y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon %0,4 seviyesinde rahat bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergilerken politika faizini sabit tutma alan\u0131na sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Euro gibi di\u011fer maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 CHF call opsiyonu almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda istikrarl\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayabilir. ABD makro verileri belirgin bir istikrar sinyali verene kadar uzun-CHF e\u011filiminin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar zay\u0131flay\u0131nca \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 parlad\u0131: USD\/CHF 0,8078\u2019e indi. ADP ve ISM beklenti alt\u0131, Fed eyl\u00fcl beklentisi %56\u2019ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrerken opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t