{"id":52410,"date":"2026-08-05T22:21:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T22:21:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-zayif-abd-verilerinin-baskisiyla-15765-civarinda-yatay-seyrederken-boj-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-yukselmesi-yen-talebini-artirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T22:21:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T22:21:43","slug":"usd-jpy-zayif-abd-verilerinin-baskisiyla-15765-civarinda-yatay-seyrederken-boj-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-yukselmesi-yen-talebini-artirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-zayif-abd-verilerinin-baskisiyla-15765-civarinda-yatay-seyrederken-boj-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-yukselmesi-yen-talebini-artirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, zay\u0131f ABD verilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla 157,65 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, BoJ faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin y\u00fckselmesi yen talebini art\u0131rd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131n Japon Yeni\u2019ne y\u00f6nelik temkinli al\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131yla 157,65 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. ABD verileri hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratt\u0131: ADP, Temmuz\u2019da \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde 70 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 44 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi (Haziran: 98 bin). ISM Hizmetler PMI ise 54,5\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 54,1\u2019e geriledi. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde kalsa da ISM \u0130stihdam Endeksi 51,2\u2019den 47,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ferek daha zay\u0131f i\u015fe al\u0131ma i\u015faret etti. Dolar ayr\u0131ca, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 se\u00e7ili yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc; iki u\u00e7ak ve \u00fc\u00e7 havayoluna y\u00f6nelik k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar kald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Tahran\u2019\u0131n onay\u0131n\u0131 bekleyen taslak bir Umman-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ilerlemeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

Japonya taraf\u0131nda piyasalar, BoJ\u2019un Haziran toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirirken, ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131 ile birlikte politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc odakta kalmaya devam etti. \u00dccret verileri s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini besledi: Haziran nominal \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4 ile May\u0131s\u2019taki %3,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; d\u00fczenli \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi (%2,7 beklenti) ve May\u0131s\u2019taki %2,5 seviyesinden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Fiyatlamalar, 18 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda BoJ\u2019un faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019a y\u00fckseltti (yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019tan); n\u00f6tr aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n %1,10\u2013%2,50 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ortak m\u00fcdahaleye ili\u015fkin yorumlarda ABD\u2019nin Euro kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Yen ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc; g\u00fcnl\u00fck JPY i\u015flem hacmi 1,61 trilyon dolar olarak telaffuz edilirken, USD\/JPY\u2019de 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 158,04 seviyesine i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131kan Teknik Seviyeler ve M\u00fcdahale Sinyalleri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, USD\/JPY i\u00e7in kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamaya kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen 158,04 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 157,65 \u00e7evresinde konsolide olurken, bu teknik tavan son d\u00f6nemdeki ABD-Japonya ortak m\u00fcdahaleleriyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde peki\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Tarihsel olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar civar\u0131nda koordineli merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmalardan ziyade sert kur d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini tetikleme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n

18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019a y\u00fckselmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m\/put) odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya\u2019da Haziran \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4\u2019e h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, bu \u015fahinle\u015fme i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sunuyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyonlanarak, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n

Volatilite Stratejileri ve USD\/JPY\u2019de A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc Risk<\/h3>\n

\u015eu anda Japon Yeni, k\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %16,7\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor; bu da ani bir y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fiminin daha geni\u015f t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin etki yarataca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Yakla\u015fan merkez bankas\u0131 kararlar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in, straddle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6zellikle ABD istihdam g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131flama sinyalleri vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, beklenmedik dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n

Temmuz\u2019da yaln\u0131zca 44 bin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden zay\u0131f ABD ADP verisi, Dolar\u2019\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmesini kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f ekonomik d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde, ABD i\u015fe al\u0131m endeksindeki benzer gerilemeler uzun Dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 yakalamak ve mutlak riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY 157,65\u2019te yatay: Zay\u0131f ADP\/ISM verileri ve \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gev\u015femesi Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. BoJ\u2019da Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %1,25 faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60; 158,04 diren\u00e7, put\/volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t