Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 ve yerel tahvil getirileri, 2\u00c7 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verilerinin i\u015fe al\u0131m ve \u00fccretlerde g\u00fcce i\u015faret ederken genel istihdam piyasas\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi de g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan geriledi. \u0130stihdam 1\u00c7\u2019deki %0,1\u2019e k\u0131yasla \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,5 artt\u0131; hem piyasa beklentisini hem de Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) %0,1\u2019lik tahminini a\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zel sekt\u00f6rde d\u00fczenli \u00fccretler ise \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,7 y\u00fckselerek \u00f6nceki %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve hem piyasa beklentisi hem de RBNZ\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc %0,6\u2019y\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak kazan\u0131mlar, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla dengelendi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 0,2 puan artarak %70,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu durum i\u015fsizli\u011fi yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve ekonomide at\u0131l kapasiteye i\u015faret etti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, %5,4 beklenirken 0,2 puan art\u0131\u015fla %5,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 3\u00c7 2015\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Eksik istihdam\/at\u0131l i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc (underutilisation) oran\u0131 da 0,9 puan artarak %13,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve Aral\u0131k 2013\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalar RBNZ\u2019nin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; politika faizi %2,20\u2013%4,10\u2019luk n\u00f6tr aral\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re de\u011ferlendirilirken, swap e\u011frisi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda toplamda neredeyse 100 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla %3,50\u2019ye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki (NZD) ve yerel getirilerdeki son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, geri \u00e7ekilmek i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7eden ziyade t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan taktik bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Man\u015fet i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, geni\u015fleyen i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 nedeniyle %5,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da, temel i\u015fe al\u0131m ivmesi son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor. \u0130stihdam 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde %0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin h\u00e2len aktif bi\u00e7imde i\u015fe al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya uzun vadeli vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131 kullanarak Kiwi dolar\u0131nda bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki gev\u015femeye ra\u011fmen, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ve diren\u00e7li i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc RBNZ\u2019yi b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye zorlaycaq. Politika faizi n\u00f6tr band\u0131n alt s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrederken, piyasalar\u0131n hen\u00fcz tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fahin s\u00fcrprizlere a\u00e7\u0131k \u00f6nemli bir alan bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n \u00e7eyreklik %0,7\u2019lik \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc sindirmesiyle birlikte yerel swap oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 kaymas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Mevcut durumda swap e\u011frisi, gelecek bir y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 ve faizin %3,50\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesini fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel veriler, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu denli istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman swap e\u011frisinin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da sabit faiz \u00f6deyen (pay-fixed) faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, NZD\u2019nin Euro veya Japon Yeni gibi daha zay\u0131f maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun (long) pozisyon al\u0131narak da ifade edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, bir\u00e7ok emsalinde bulunmayan sa\u011flam bir temel dayanak sunuyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na verilen ilk refleks tepki s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendik\u00e7e, NZD\u2019nin kademeli bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesi i\u00e7in uygun bir zeminde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat m\u0131? 2\u00c7 istihdam ve \u00fccretler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, ancak kat\u0131l\u0131m art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizli\u011fi %5,6\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. NZD\/tahviller gerilese de \u015fahin RBNZ beklentisiyle al\u0131m, pay-fixed swap \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50531,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t