{"id":52396,"date":"2026-08-05T13:22:22","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T13:22:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verisi-dolar-ve-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-zayiflatirken-altin-4-185-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T13:22:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T13:22:22","slug":"zayif-abd-istihdam-verisi-dolar-ve-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-zayiflatirken-altin-4-185-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verisi-dolar-ve-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-zayiflatirken-altin-4-185-dolarin-uzerine-sicradi\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verisi dolar ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131rken alt\u0131n 4.185 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 2,50\u2019den fazla y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2019de daha yumu\u015fak gelen istihdam verileri ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (USD) bask\u0131larken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik umutlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme enflasyon endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Metal, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bir ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fckse\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.185 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi temmuzda 44 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stererek 70 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve hazirandaki 98 binden geriledi; daha zay\u0131f gelen JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 verisinin ard\u0131ndan odak \u015fimdi cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine kayd\u0131. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 da gev\u015fedi; CME FedWatch arac\u0131, eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn y\u00fczde 67,2\u2019den y\u00fczde 56,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken, enflasyon y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye d\u00f6nene kadar politikan\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de tabloyu destekledi; ABD, \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, sevkiyat\u0131 yeniden tesis etmeyi hedefleyen ge\u00e7ici 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir kurgu olarak tan\u0131mlanan olas\u0131 bir ara anla\u015fmaya i\u015faret etti. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) 4.064 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 4.160 dolar seviyesinin az \u00fczerinde bulunuyor; ivme g\u00f6stergeleri G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 57 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini ve Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama Iraksama\u2019n\u0131n (MACD) pozitif oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.160 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.200 dolar; yukar\u0131da 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.398 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, destek 4.064 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131 kapsayan ayl\u0131k raporunun bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olan NFP, genellikle USD ile pozitif, alt\u0131n ile negatif korelasyon g\u00f6sterir; piyasa tepkisi Ortalama Haftal\u0131k Kazan\u00e7lar, \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131 ve Ortalama Haftal\u0131k \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Saati gibi bile\u015fenler taraf\u0131ndan da \u015fekillenebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Volatilite G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130\u015flem \u00d6nerileri<\/h3>\n\n

4.200 dolardaki diren\u00e7 seviyesini k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine test ettikten sonra 4.185 dolar \u00e7evresinde dalgalanan XAU\/USD\u2019de volatilitenin artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu ani y\u00fczde 2,5\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama; so\u011fuyan ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri ve gerileyen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve agresif para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini yumu\u015fatmas\u0131yla destekleniyor. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 2024\u2019te yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.300 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ortalama i\u015flem seviyesine k\u0131yasla 2026\u2019da bu tarihi seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131, genel momentumun yeniden al\u0131c\u0131lara d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler, tarihsel olarak ABD Dolar\u0131 ve de\u011ferli metallerin k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyen cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporunda olacak. ADP raporunun temmuzda 70 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 yaln\u0131zca 44 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, daha zay\u0131f bir NFP verisinin dolar\u0131 ilave bask\u0131lamas\u0131 olas\u0131. \u0130stihdam verisi beklentinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, 4.200 dolardaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc psikolojik bariyerin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosuna y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik Geli\u015fmeler ve Teknik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik tansiyonun gev\u015femesi, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin m\u00fczakereler, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek genel piyasay\u0131 daha istikrarl\u0131 hale getiriyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 56,9\u2019a gerilemi\u015f olsa da, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyon y\u00fczde 2 seviyesine net bi\u00e7imde inene kadar k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015fta kalmaya kararl\u0131 oldu\u011fu unutulmamal\u0131. Bu nedenle, faiz beklentilerinde olas\u0131 ani \u015fahin kaymalara kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar veya s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleriyle korunma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan XAU\/USD\u2019nin 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 4.160 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde yap\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi\u011fini ve 57 seviyesindeki iyile\u015fen RSI taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 4.200 dolar \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f gelmesi halinde, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.398 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru hareketin \u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131labilir. Di\u011fer taraftan 4.064 dolar deste\u011finin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; bu kritik b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 4.000 dolar taban\u0131na do\u011fru daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda sert ralli: XAU\/USD %2,5 y\u00fckselip 4.200\u2019\u00fc test etti. Zay\u0131f ADP, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol ve gev\u015feyen Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler Cuma NFP\u2019de. 4.200 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 4.398 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t