Risk-on i\u015flemler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcne erken saatlerde damga vurdu. Piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da diplomaside yumu\u015fama ihtimalini tartarken, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde odak ABD \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verileri ile temmuz ay\u0131 ISM Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131na kay\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda faaliyetlerin yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden haberlerin ard\u0131ndan petrol sert geriledi: WTI sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve \u00e7ar\u015famba $74 civar\u0131nda dengelendi; Brent ise anla\u015fma spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131yla $80\/varil alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. ABD hisseleri yeni zirvelere t\u0131rmand\u0131; DJIA ve S&P 500 rekor seviyelerden kapan\u0131rken, USD Endeksi hafif gerileyerek 100,00\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ABD hisse vadeli i\u015flemleri Avrupa\u2019da %0,3 ila %0,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131da seyretti. Alt\u0131n %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k $4.170\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed s\u00f6ylemi \u015fahin tarafta kald\u0131. Kansas City Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeff Schmid\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 FXS Speechtracker\u2019da 7,3\/10 puan ald\u0131; bu seviye 7\/10\u2019luk tarihsel ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde ve PCE bazl\u0131 %2 enflasyon hedefini yeniden teyit etti. FX taraf\u0131nda USD\/JPY 158,00\u2019in alt\u0131nda tutunurken, EUR\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 y\u00fckseldi ve Eurostat\u2019\u0131n haziran \u00dcFE verisi \u00f6ncesinde 1,1530\u2019un \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; GBP\/USD ise 1,3450 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 2\u00c7\u2019de 1\u00c7\u2019deki %5,4\u2019ten %5,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi (beklenti %5,4) ve NZD\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,5870 civar\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakereler ilerlerken, ham petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Brent\u2019in $80\u2019in alt\u0131na inmesi ve WTI\u2019\u0131n $74 civar\u0131nda dengelenmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 azalan jeopolitik risk priminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in cazip bir yol sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hatlar\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 risk primi kaynakl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde geri verir; sonraki haftalarda zaman zaman ilave %10 ila %15\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkilileri yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapsa da, alt\u0131n\u0131n $4.170\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00fcksek volatilite ortam\u0131nda \u00f6denen primi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m (bull call) spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir. Bu strateji, alt\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131sal teknolojik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve kal\u0131c\u0131 sermaye harcamas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir korunma arac\u0131 olma e\u011filimiyle de uyumludur.<\/p>\n
S&P 500 ve Dow Jones\u2019un bug\u00fcn yeni rekorlar g\u00f6rmesiyle, hisse t\u00fcrevi i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen volatiliteden yararlanarak koruyucu sat\u0131m (protective put) almalar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa zirvelerinde tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir Volatilite Endeksi (VIX), a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc portf\u00f6y korumas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a maliyet-etkin hale getiriyor. Bu durum, yakla\u015fan ABD ISM Hizmet PMI ve istihdam verilerinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 halinde ani k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n
Kur opsiyonlar\u0131 piyasas\u0131nda, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda shortlamak i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte %5,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi belirgin bir i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ederken, bu tablo dayan\u0131kl\u0131 ABD ekonomisiyle keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimine zorlanabilece\u011fi bir ortamda geni\u015fleyen para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Diplomasiyle risk-on r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz haberi petrol\u00fc sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc, ABD endeksleri rekor tazeledi, alt\u0131n $4.170\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. G\u00f6zler ADP\/ISM\u2019de. Strateji: petrolde put, alt\u0131nda bull call, hissede protective put, NZD\/USD\u2019de put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t