USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki gev\u015feme ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tazelenen diplomatik ivmeyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 sonucu \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,8080 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcnde de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Axios, ABD, \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Washington\u2019un \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bir duyuru hedefledi\u011fini bildirdi. \u00c7er\u00e7eve, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in bir darbo\u011faz olan bo\u011fazda Umman ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczenleme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve uzatmaya a\u00e7\u0131k olacak. Dolar i\u00e7in k\u0131smi bir destek, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili getirisinin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %4,61\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131yla geldi; enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f enflasyon endi\u015felerini so\u011futurken, \u015fahin bir Fed tepkisine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri de t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi.<\/p>\n
Fed ileti\u015fimi k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 tonda de\u011ferlendirildi: FXS Speechtracker, Schmid\u2019i 7\/10\u2019luk baz seviyeye kar\u015f\u0131 7,3\/10 olarak puanlarken; FXS Fed Duygu Endeksi 0,96 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 145,80\u2019e geriledi ve buna ra\u011fmen n\u00f6tr 100 \u00e7izgisinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de Temmuz man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,4 ile Haziran\u2019daki %0,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ayda da y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131; bu tablo SNB politika faizinin %0,00\u2019da \u00e7\u0131palanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Ayr\u0131 bir piyasa de\u011ferlendirmesinde, Frank\u0131n bu \u00e7eyrekte \u015fimdiye kadar G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f para birimi oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
0,8080 civar\u0131na gerileyen USD\/CHF paritesinde olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmenin azalmas\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f olsa da, bu g\u00fcvenli liman priminin h\u0131zla buharla\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel. Tarihsel olarak, benzer diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131mlar piyasa endi\u015fesi so\u011fuduk\u00e7a CHF\u2019de sert geri \u00e7ekilmelere yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyatlamaya ABD ile \u0130svi\u00e7re aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n vermesini bekliyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, Temmuz\u2019daki y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,4 gibi ultra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck T\u00dcFE verisinin ard\u0131ndan politika faizini %0,00\u2019da tutmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri %4,61 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na belirgin bir getiri avantaj\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden faydalanmak i\u00e7in orta vadeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almak amac\u0131yla USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri, giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mevcut ortamda \u00f6zellikle cazip. Tarihsel olarak \u00f6nemli bir psikolojik destek hatt\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6ren kritik 0,8000 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda zarar-kes (stop-loss) belirlenmesini veya bariyerlerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik inat\u00e7\u0131 e\u011filimini de yak\u0131ndan takip etmek gerekiyor. Fed Duygu Endeksi \u015fahin b\u00f6lgeyi i\u015faret eden 145,80 seviyesinde seyrederken, ABD\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona dair herhangi bir i\u015faretin \u201cgreenback\u201di yukar\u0131 itmesi muhtemel. Beklenmedik jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n mevcut diplomatik ivmeyi bozmas\u0131 halinde, straddle gibi stratejilerle k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite i\u015flemleri de k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CHF 0,8080\u2019de ikinci g\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fma sinyali g\u00fcvenli liman talebini eritiyor. Ancak faiz fark\u0131 ve Fed tonu, 0,8000 \u00fczeri olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t