{"id":52370,"date":"2026-08-05T06:21:56","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T06:21:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/daha-zayif-dolar-ve-dusen-petrol-fedin-faiz-beklentilerini-yumusatirken-altin-4-150-dolara-dogru-yukseliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T06:21:56","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T06:21:56","slug":"daha-zayif-dolar-ve-dusen-petrol-fedin-faiz-beklentilerini-yumusatirken-altin-4-150-dolara-dogru-yukseliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/daha-zayif-dolar-ve-dusen-petrol-fedin-faiz-beklentilerini-yumusatirken-altin-4-150-dolara-dogru-yukseliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Daha zay\u0131f dolar ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol, Fed\u2019in faiz beklentilerini yumu\u015fat\u0131rken alt\u0131n 4.150 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (USD) zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ikinci seansa ta\u015f\u0131yarak Asya i\u015flemlerinde iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 4.141 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 4.150 dolar seviyesini hedefte tutuyor. Fiyat hareketi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran uzla\u015f\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylemler ile OPEC+\u2019\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren \u00fcretimi art\u0131rma karar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle desteklendi. Bu geli\u015fmeler ham petrol\u00fc 13 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine \u00e7ekti. Daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131rken, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u015fahin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) beklentilerini de zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve getiri ta\u015f\u0131mayan de\u011ferli metale destek verdi.<\/p>\n

Faiz beklentileri ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 unsur konumunda. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS), JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 7,36 milyona geriledi\u011fini bildirdi. Kansas City Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jeff Schmid ve Philadelphia Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Anna Paulson ise daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika gerek\u00e7esine i\u015faret ederek, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde y\u0131l sonuna kadar daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine y\u00f6nelik fiyatlamalar\u0131n canl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ADP istihdam raporu ve ISM Hizmet PMI verisini bekliyor. Grafiklerde alt\u0131n, d\u00f6rt saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde 200 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda; RSI 65\u2019e yak\u0131n ve MACD histogram\u0131 pozitif. Diren\u00e7 4.130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015faretlenirken, destek 4.115 dolar civar\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 4.065, 4.043-4.042, 4.020 ve 4.000 seviyeleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n

Technical Outlook and Trading Strategy<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.150 dolar seviyesini hedefledi\u011fi ortamda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcn kilit 200 periyotluk hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin, 65 seviyesindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) ile teyit edilmesi, al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc net bi\u00e7imde elinde tuttu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasan\u0131n yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan ADP istihdam verisi ve ISM Hizmet PMI\u2019a tepki vermesiyle bug\u00fcn fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f beklenebilir.<\/p>\n

Macro Drivers, Historical Parallels, and Strategy<\/h3>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali ve OPEC+\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de petrol \u00fcretimini art\u0131rma plan\u0131, dolar\u0131n zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi bu ortam\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki ba\u015fl\u0131ca itici g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde ortalama %10 ila %15 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Haziran ortas\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere gerilerken, enflasyon beklentilerindeki yumu\u015fama Fed \u00fczerindeki \u201cfaizleri y\u00fcksek tutma\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerden 7,36 milyona d\u00fc\u015fmesi, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda belirgin bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu so\u011fuma e\u011filimi, Fed\u2019in faizlerde gev\u015femeye gidece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor; bu da tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kataliz\u00f6r i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2000-2011 aras\u0131ndaki uzun s\u00fcreli faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131na alternatif aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 %280\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeli yakalarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak amac\u0131yla uzun vadeli al\u0131m (long call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltmeyle 4.115 dolar destek b\u00f6lgesine geri \u00e7ekilmesi h\u00e2linde, bunu y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporuna haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir; beklentiden zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisi, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.150 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, zay\u0131f dolar ve petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle Asya\u2019da 4.141 dolarda iki haftan\u0131n zirvesinde; hedef 4.150. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu risk, NFP\/ADP-ISM verileri y\u00f6n belirleyecek. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50093,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t