{"id":52361,"date":"2026-08-05T00:21:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T00:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/cinde-fabrika-anketleri-ivme-kaybina-isaret-ediyor-pbocnin-gevseme-adimlarina-ve-yuandaki-zayifliga-yonelik-beklentiler-gucleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T00:21:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T00:21:37","slug":"cinde-fabrika-anketleri-ivme-kaybina-isaret-ediyor-pbocnin-gevseme-adimlarina-ve-yuandaki-zayifliga-yonelik-beklentiler-gucleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/cinde-fabrika-anketleri-ivme-kaybina-isaret-ediyor-pbocnin-gevseme-adimlarina-ve-yuandaki-zayifliga-yonelik-beklentiler-gucleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019de Fabrika Anketleri \u0130vme Kayb\u0131na \u0130\u015faret Ediyor; PBoC\u2019nin Gev\u015feme Ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ve Yuan\u2019daki Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa Y\u00f6nelik Beklentiler G\u00fc\u00e7leniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6zel imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da 50,9\u2019a gerileyerek d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi; bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, resmi NBS PMI\u2019\u0131n 49,2 seviyesinde kalmas\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde fabrika ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kan\u0131tlara yenilerini ekliyor. \u0130ki anket birlikte, hem b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerde hem de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde daha zay\u0131f ko\u015fullara i\u015faret ederken, RatingDog anketinin alt kalem da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da yumu\u015famay\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Daha zay\u0131f veriler, yak\u0131n vadede parasal geni\u015fleme beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131; piyasalar LPR\u2019da ayarlamalar ve ZK (RRR) indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda USD\/CNY ve offshore USD\/CNH y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti; s\u0131ras\u0131yla 30 pip ve 60 pip artarak 6,76\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Parasal Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Tepkisi<\/h3>\n

\u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131flayan ekonomik verileri yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde ivme kaybetti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Hem resmi hem de \u00f6zel fabrika anketleri daralma ya da keskin yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ederken, \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBOC) agresif bir parasal gev\u015feme ile devreye girmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kredi Ana Faizi\u2019nde (LPR) yak\u0131n vadeli indirimlere ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131\u2019nda (RRR) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Stratejisi ve \u0130\u015flem \u00d6nerileri<\/h3>\n

Bu de\u011fi\u015fime pozisyon almak i\u00e7in, yuan\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n imalat daralmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda faiz indirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde yuan\u0131n genellikle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llardaki benzer gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri sert de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti; likiditenin piyasaya akmas\u0131yla birlikte paritenin kritik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine ta\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, yurti\u00e7i tahvil getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle faiz swap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cpay-receiver\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sabitlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131, zay\u0131flayan \u00f6zel \u015firketleri desteklemek i\u00e7in likidite enjekte ederken k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin sert bi\u00e7imde gerilemesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. Bu makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fla\u015f: \u00c7in\u2019de fabrika ivmesi bozuluyor. \u00d6zel PMI 50,9\u2019a inse de NBS 49,2\u2019de kald\u0131; zay\u0131fl\u0131k LPR\/RRR indirimi beklentisini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcp USD\/CNY-CNH\u2019yi 6,76\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Strateji: USD\/CNH call, swap receiver.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50124,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t