EUR\/USD, piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimalini fiyatlamas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1500\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, Washington\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi ve ge\u00e7i\u015fin yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fman\u0131n en erken Sal\u0131 ya da \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc gelebilece\u011fini belirtti. Al Arabiya da \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, bir duyurunun yak\u0131n olabilece\u011fini aktard\u0131. Bu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 Petrol\u2019\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; WTI, 75,50 dolara do\u011fru gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131 ise \u00f6nce zay\u0131flad\u0131, ard\u0131ndan bir miktar toparland\u0131. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Marco Rubio, \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ilerleme oldu\u011funu, ancak nihai anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken; ABD Dolar Endeksi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek 99,90 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Tam kapsaml\u0131 bir yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma, Petrol \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yaratabilir; enflasyon risklerini hafifleterek Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Odak ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD istihdam verilerine kayd\u0131: JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 Haziran\u2019da 7,594 milyondan 7,359 milyona geriledi ve 7,4 milyonluk beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisini izliyor. ING\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadeli adil de\u011fer modeli, EUR\/USD\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5\u2013%1 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir USD ile paritenin yeniden 1,150\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak maa\u015f bordrolar\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmedik\u00e7e yak\u0131n vadede 1,140\u2019a d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD paritesinde 1,1450 seviyesine do\u011fru ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro 1,1500\u2019nin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalm\u0131\u015f olsa da, mevcut de\u011ferleme modelleri paritenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 ile %1,0 aras\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Federal Rezerv\u2019den belirgin bir g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f gelmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, paritenin daha yukar\u0131 itilecek ivmesi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Beklenen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde\u2014Brent ve WTI\u2019\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 75,50 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesinde oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014enflasyonist bask\u0131lar azal\u0131r ve merkez bankalar\u0131na faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ara verme alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen faiz fark\u0131 dinami\u011finin, \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, k\u0131sa vadede ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in, enerji maruziyetlerinin Petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak veya WTI ham petrol\u00fc \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131n alarak hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. D\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma ihtimali, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 70 dolar destek seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekebilir. Tarihsel olarak, 2015\u2019teki denizcilik kaynakl\u0131 diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler gibi benzer tedarik zinciri rahatlama olaylar\u0131, iki hafta i\u00e7inde enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde %5 ile %8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fczeltmeleri tetiklemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Faiz stratejistleri i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlara bak\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131, man\u015fet enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 mevcut %45 seviyesinden %15\u2019in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Bu kayma, e\u011frinin k\u0131sa taraf\u0131nda getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iterken, getiri e\u011frisinde \u201csteepener\u201d i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kritik e\u015fik: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 masada! EUR\/USD 1,1500 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunurken ABD-\u0130ran haberleri petrol\u00fc 75,50$\u2019a itti; zay\u0131flayan enflasyon beklentileri Fed\/ECB faiz riskini azalt\u0131yor, g\u00f6zler ADP-NFP\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t