G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ons ba\u015f\u0131na 59,50 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2 y\u00fckselse de son zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 bant i\u00e7inde hareket ediyor. Al Arabiya ve Al Hadath\u2019\u0131n haberleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 bir duyuruya i\u015faret etti; tam a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n saatler i\u00e7inde teyit edilebilece\u011fi belirtilse de iki haber de do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Buna ra\u011fmen man\u015fetler, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi so\u011furken emtialara g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc risk priminin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesine \u015fimdiden katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn savunmac\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir; ancak daha ucuz enerji ve daha sorunsuz ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sanayi faaliyetini destekler. G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 end\u00fcstriyel kullan\u0131mlara ba\u011fl\u0131. ABD\u2019de JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 haziranda (revize) 7,537 milyondan 7,359 milyona gerileyerek 7,4 milyonluk beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu veri, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ISM \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesini bir miktar dengeledi. Temmuz i\u00e7in ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi 98 bin sonras\u0131 70 bin bekleniyor. XAG\/USD 59,40 dolarda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken 20 periyotluk SMA (58,37) ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (57,93) \u00fczerinde tutunuyor, RSI 61 seviyesinde. Diren\u00e7 59,49 ve 60,00 dolarda; destekler ise 59,14 ve ard\u0131ndan 58,99 dolarda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri sindirdi\u011fi \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) bir strateji benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131, g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn mevcut 59,50 dolar seviyesindeki g\u00fcvenli liman priminin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyecek olsa da, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri k\u00fcresel imalat\u0131 destekleyecektir. End\u00fcstriyel imalat\u0131n k\u00fcresel toplam g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f talebinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %55\u2019ini olu\u015fturmas\u0131 nedeniyle, ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131ndaki herhangi bir iyile\u015fme orta vadede h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sa\u011flam bir fiyat taban\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n kritik istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde, ba\u015faba\u015f seviyeye yak\u0131n (near-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n alarak daha zay\u0131f bir ABD Dolar\u0131 senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Haziranda JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 7,359 milyona gerilemesiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki so\u011fuma, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sona yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak so\u011fuyan bir istihdam piyasas\u0131 tahvil getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker; bu da al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat maliyetini azaltarak g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi faiz getirisi olmayan metalleri do\u011frudan destekler.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 60,00 dolardaki kritik yatay diren\u00e7 bariyerine odaklan\u0131rken 20 periyotluk hareketli ortalama olan 58,37 dolar civar\u0131nda savunmac\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlenebilir. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 61\u2019de ve metalin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmeden sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 momentum ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi daha zay\u0131f bir e\u011filimi teyit ederse, 60,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine bir k\u0131r\u0131lma bekliyoruz; bu da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc momentum al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 59,50 dolarda bantta: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylentisi risk primini eritip g\u00fcvenli liman\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Ancak end\u00fcstriyel talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. ABD istihdam verileri ve 60,00 diren\u00e7 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa yeni ralli g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t