{"id":52351,"date":"2026-08-04T17:52:16","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T17:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagina-dair-soylemler-dolar-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-baskilarken-altin-abd-istihdam-verileri-oncesinde-toparlandi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T17:52:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T17:52:16","slug":"hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagina-dair-soylemler-dolar-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-baskilarken-altin-abd-istihdam-verileri-oncesinde-toparlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hurmuz-bogazinin-yeniden-acilacagina-dair-soylemler-dolar-ve-tahvil-getirilerini-baskilarken-altin-abd-istihdam-verileri-oncesinde-toparlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair s\u00f6ylemler dolar ve tahvil getirilerini bask\u0131larken alt\u0131n, ABD istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde toparland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik Gerilimler ve Ekonomik G\u00f6stergeler Ortas\u0131nda Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Dinamikleri<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc toparlanarak, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.042 dolar seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.087 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; haberlerde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine i\u015faret edildi. Ayr\u0131 medya haberleri bir duyurunun yak\u0131n olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrse de resmi bir do\u011frulama yoktu. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki bu de\u011fi\u015fim ABD Dolar\u0131 ve petrol\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken WTI, 75,50 dolara do\u011fru gerileyerek son \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesine indi. Daha yumu\u015fak enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na deste\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131nda CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %67,2\u2019den %57,1\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

ABD JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 Haziran\u2019da 7,594 milyondan 7,359 milyona d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve 7,4 milyonluk piyasa beklentisinin hafif alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ADP ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verilerine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 4.062 dolardaki 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; ancak 4.407 dolarda bulunan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti: RSI 49 civar\u0131nda, MACD ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 4.100 ve 4.200 dolar; destek ise mevcut b\u00f6lgeye yak\u0131n, ard\u0131ndan 4.062 ve 4.000 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Mevcut Alt\u0131n Piyasas\u0131nda \u00d6nerilen \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilimlerin hafifledi\u011fine dair i\u015faretler nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli, bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) bir strateji benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 75,50 dolar civar\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesi ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla, k\u00fcresel enflasyon \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Agresif k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout) stratejilerini kovalamak yerine bu konsolidasyon evresinden faydalanmaya odaklanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n

G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) n\u00f6tr 49 seviyesinde seyrederken ve fiyatlar 4.087 dolar civar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, prim erimesinden (theta decay) getiri elde etmek \u00fczere demir kondor (iron condor) gibi delta-n\u00f6tr opsiyon stratejilerinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (short strike) 4.062 dolardaki kritik 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na ya da daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc psikolojik destek olan 4.000 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n olacak \u015fekilde bo\u011fa put spread (bull put spread) kurulabilir. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 konsolidasyonlarda 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamas\u0131na geri \u00e7ekildi\u011finde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal al\u0131m ilgisi bulma e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n

Faizlere duyarl\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamak i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 7,359 milyona gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan gelecek bir ba\u015fka zay\u0131f istihdam g\u00f6stergesi, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 mevcut %57,1 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na itebilir. Tarihsel olarak faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinde %10\u2019luk bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 48 saatlik bir zaman dilimi i\u00e7inde alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klarda %1,5\u2013%2 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ralliye yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Vadeli i\u015flem (futures) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, ani jeopolitik tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla 4.100 dolardaki yak\u0131n yatay direncin hemen \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Diplomatik giri\u015fimler sonu\u00e7suz kal\u0131r ve bo\u011faz kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam ederse, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.407 dolara do\u011fru ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yeniden belirgin bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak masada kal\u0131r. Deniz hatt\u0131na ili\u015fkin resmi do\u011frulama gelene kadar kald\u0131ra\u00e7 oranlar\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fctevaz\u0131 tutmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar nefes ald\u0131: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131labilir haberleriyle alt\u0131n 4.087$\u2019a toparland\u0131. Dolar-petrol gerilerken getiriler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. JOLTS zay\u0131f, Fed art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %57. Teknikte bant; 4.100-4.200 diren\u00e7, 4.062-4.000 destek; delta-n\u00f6tr stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52351","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t