Philadelphia Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Anna Paulson, sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc CNBC\u2019ye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, altta yatan enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; mevcut duru\u015fun da muhtemelen bu tan\u0131ma uydu\u011funu ekledi. Paulson, Federal Rezerv\u2019in enflasyonu hedefe geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme konusunda kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtirken, bunun para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan karma\u015f\u0131k bir d\u00f6nem oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Paulson ayr\u0131ca, FOMC\u2019de faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n \u201ck\u0131l pay\u0131\u201d al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve belirsizli\u011fin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi (forward guidance) zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi. <\/p>\n\n
Politika do\u011fru ayarlan\u0131rsa enflasyonun yumu\u015famas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Paulson, para politikas\u0131 yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olmazsa verilerin yap\u0131\u015fkan, y\u00fcksek enflasyona i\u015faret edece\u011fini ve ilerleme duraksarsa Fed\u2019in harekete ge\u00e7mesi gerekece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Paulson, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda \u201cistikrarl\u0131\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Enerji taraf\u0131nda ise fiyatlar\u0131n oynak oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek verilerin bu hareketlerin \u201cg\u00f6rmezden gelinebilece\u011fine\u201d i\u015faret etti\u011fini, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 bu \u015fekilde ele alman\u0131n do\u011fru oldu\u011funu ekledi. Ayr\u0131ca para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131k fikirli kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve Fed\u2019in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bi\u00e7imini tazelemek ad\u0131na yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeyi destekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret etmesi ve faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faizleri sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131l pay\u0131 al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, SOFR gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinin mevcut dar bantlar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin olmamas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) opsiyon stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8-%3 band\u0131nda seyretmesi, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Tarihsel veriler, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 bir duru\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde piyasa belirsizli\u011fi azald\u0131k\u00e7a hisse endeks oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu zaman gerileme e\u011filimine girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona dair sinyaller a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015fan makro verileri yak\u0131ndan izlerken, hisse opsiyonlar\u0131nda prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na bak\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Fed\u2019in oynak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde son derece temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Brent petrol ve do\u011fal gazda son d\u00f6nemde s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7ift haneli y\u00fczde hareketleri, bu emtia piyasalar\u0131nda \u201c\u00e7\u0131plak\u201d (naked) sat\u0131\u015f yerine tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon spread\u2019lerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ani arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklara maruz kalmadan mevcut piyasa band\u0131ndan faydalanmaya olanak sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Fed\u2019in yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 duru\u015funu korudu\u011fu s\u00fcrece ABD tahvil getiri e\u011frisinin yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, uzun s\u00fcreli istikrarl\u0131 ve k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 faiz d\u00f6nemleri, uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentileri ankrajland\u0131k\u00e7a vade priminde (term premium) s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya yol a\u00e7ar. Sabit getirili t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, Fed\u2019in kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle getiri e\u011frisi yatayla\u015fmas\u0131na (flattening) y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlara odaklanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019den \u015fahin mesaj: Paulson, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek diyerek politikan\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Faiz sabit, belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; range opsiyonlar\u0131, hisse prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131; enerjiye spread, e\u011fride flattening \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t