{"id":52346,"date":"2026-08-04T14:22:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T14:22:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/trump-ekibi-yeni-guclendirmek-ve-hazine-tahvili-piyasasinda-sarsintiyi-sinirlamak-icin-fedin-fima-repo-imkaninin-kullanimini-degerlendiriyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T14:22:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T14:22:57","slug":"trump-ekibi-yeni-guclendirmek-ve-hazine-tahvili-piyasasinda-sarsintiyi-sinirlamak-icin-fedin-fima-repo-imkaninin-kullanimini-degerlendiriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/trump-ekibi-yeni-guclendirmek-ve-hazine-tahvili-piyasasinda-sarsintiyi-sinirlamak-icin-fedin-fima-repo-imkaninin-kullanimini-degerlendiriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump ekibi, yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek ve Hazine tahvili piyasas\u0131nda sars\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in FIMA repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump y\u00f6netimi, ABD Hazine piyasas\u0131nda bozulmaya yol a\u00e7madan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yeni savunmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Federal Rezerv\u2019i te\u015fvik etmeyi de\u011ferlendiriyor. Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, yabanc\u0131 merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD Hazine tahvillerini satmak yerine onlar\u0131 teminat g\u00f6stererek bor\u00e7lanabilmesi amac\u0131yla Fed\u2019in FIMA repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n daha geni\u015f kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorum yapmay\u0131 reddetti. Bessent, ABD\u2019nin yeni desteklemek \u00fczere m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; bu, Japonya\u2019da deprem ve tsunaminin ard\u0131ndan 2011\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen nadir bir emsalin yank\u0131s\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Yeni, 2022\u2019den bu yana faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019daki daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli i\u00e7 kaynakl\u0131 zorluklar nedeniyle de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta yeni dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 164 seviyesine yakla\u015farak 1986\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan ortak ad\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 157\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; haberlere g\u00f6re Hazine, yen almak i\u00e7in Exchange Stabilization Fund\u2019dan euro satt\u0131. Yenle fonlanan carry trade i\u015flemlerindeki bask\u0131, zorunlu ABD tahvili sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n getirileri yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi endi\u015fesini art\u0131rd\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 4,7%\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi. FIMA swap kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n standart dolar likiditesi swap hatlar\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor; kar\u015f\u0131 taraf ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00fcnl\u00fck 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k limit ta\u015f\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n elinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1 trilyon dolar tutar\u0131nda ABD tahvili bulunurken, son yen destek ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 60-80 milyar dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu tahmin ediliyor. Herhangi bir geni\u015fleme i\u00e7in FOMC onay\u0131 gerekecek.<\/p>\n\n

USD\/JPY Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Yen M\u00fcdahale Stratejileri ve Euro Riskleri<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri gibi risk-kapal\u0131 stratejiler kullanarak veya kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak USD\/JPY\u2019de artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son ortak m\u00fcdahale, pariteyi 164 civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyeden 157\u2019nin alt\u0131na ba\u015far\u0131yla \u00e7ekti ve para otoriteleri taraf\u0131ndan sert bir tavan olu\u015fturuldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2024 ortas\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi 62 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahaleye ili\u015fkin tarihsel veriler, bu t\u00fcr resm\u00ee ad\u0131mlar\u0131n kontrols\u00fcz uzun USD\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cezaland\u0131ran sert, \u00e7ok haftal\u0131k ters hareketleri tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, bu diplomatik manevralar\u0131n yan etkileriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan euroda da k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 veya EUR\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekiyor. ABD Hazine\u2019sinin, yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in Exchange Stabilization Fund\u2019dan euro satma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k karar\u0131 euro likiditesini fiilen azalt\u0131yor. Bu m\u00fcdahale deseni, k\u00fcresel ticaret gerilimleri nedeniyle zaten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda olan euro i\u00e7in yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Son olarak, koordineli merkez bankas\u0131 aksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde genellikle %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayan 1 ayl\u0131k USD\/JPY ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k primleri, disiplinli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in yen paritelerinde opsiyon spread\u2019i yazarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc prim toplama f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunabilir. ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifesi tehditlerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda yenle fonlanan carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrken, kald\u0131ra\u00e7 y\u00f6netimi en y\u00fcksek \u00f6nceli\u011fimiz olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Tahvil Getirisi Stratejileri ve FIMA \u0130mk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131n Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda, getirilerin dengelenmesi veya gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir e\u011filimle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ABD tahvillerini izleyen enstr\u00fcmanlarda uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirileri kritik %4,7 e\u015fi\u011fine dokunduktan sonra geri \u00e7ekilirken, piyasay\u0131 istikrars\u0131zla\u015ft\u0131rabilecek bor\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tehdidi azal\u0131yor. Japonya, 1,1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ABD tahvili stokunu teminat g\u00f6stererek Fed\u2019in FIMA repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaya ba\u015far\u0131yla ge\u00e7erse, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD bor\u00e7lanma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki arz bask\u0131s\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde hafifleyecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed\u2019den \u201cyen kalkan\u0131\u201d m\u0131 geliyor? Trump y\u00f6netimi, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n savunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in FIMA repo kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletip tahvil sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemeyi tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; USD\/JPY oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckselirken euro sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t