Yen, ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc sert bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; bunun \u00f6ncesinde cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanan bir haberde Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in bir kabine toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 5-10 milyar dolar tutar\u0131nda yen al\u0131m\u0131 fikrini g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fi belirtilmi\u015fti. Bu hamle USDJPY\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve di\u011fer JPY \u00e7aprazlar\u0131n\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi; fiyat hareketinin teknik sinyallerle de\u011fil ba\u015fka dinamiklerle \u015fekillendi\u011fine y\u00f6nelik uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131ld\u0131. Beyaz Saray ad\u0131m\u0131 Japonya\u2019n\u0131n para birimi ve ekonomisine destek olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelese de piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k ABD Hazine bonosu (T-bill) varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve yen deste\u011finin bu menkul k\u0131ymetlerin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla finanse edilme riskine kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 anlat\u0131m, ABD\u2019nin dolar\u0131 do\u011frudan zay\u0131flatmamak i\u00e7in EUR kullanarak JPY sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini, bunun da ECB ile olas\u0131 s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme riskini g\u00fcndeme getirdi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yabanc\u0131 T-bill sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi ve ABD i\u00e7 enflasyonunu yukar\u0131 itebilece\u011fi; bunun da Fed\u2019i aksiyona zorlayabilece\u011fi savunuldu. Di\u011fer tarafta EUR genel olarak yatay seyrederken, EURAUD\u2019da olas\u0131 bir \u201c\u00e7ift tepe\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekildi; g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 57-59 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daralan bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD endekslerinin rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, NASDAQ\u2019\u0131n toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi; Meta ve Amazon bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Brent ve WTI\u2019\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesi genelinde hedefleri vurmas\u0131yla oynak seyretti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
JPY\u2019deki ani ve b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lenme dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Japon yeni i\u015flemlerine son derece temkinli yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USDJPY\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemin diplerine gerilemesi klasik bir \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u201d teknik kurgusu gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, bu hareket piyasa grafiklerinden ziyade do\u011frudan jeopolitik m\u00fcdahalelerle s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor. ABD Hazine\u2019sinin 10 milyar dolara kadar yen al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha fazla m\u00fcdahale sinyali vermesi nedeniyle, mevcut ko\u015fullarda USDJPY\u2019de y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 uzun pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Japonya, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,12 trilyon dolarla ABD borcunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck yabanc\u0131 sahiplerinden biri konumunda ve portf\u00f6y\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli miktarda ABD Hazine k\u00e2\u011f\u0131d\u0131 bulunduruyor. ABD Hazine\u2019sinin EUR kullanarak JPY sat\u0131n almas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 hamlesi, Tokyo\u2019nun bu Hazine k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 piyasaya s\u00fcrmesini engellemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor olabilir; aksi halde ABD tahvil getirileri h\u0131zla y\u00fckselerek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini s\u0131\u00e7ratabilirdi. Di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 da benzer \u015fekilde T-bill varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 tasfiye etmeye ba\u015flarsa, USD\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ve ABD i\u00e7 enflasyonunda sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa \u00e7aprazlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in EURAUD\u2019\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; olas\u0131 bir \u00e7ift tepe formasyonu olu\u015fuyor ve direncin korunmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa pozisyon f\u0131rsat\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Bu s\u0131rada g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek 57-59 dolar band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Hacimle teyit edilen net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte bant i\u00e7i stratejileri \u00f6neriyoruz; ayr\u0131ca fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir USD\u2019ye ihtiya\u00e7 oldu\u011fu not edilmeli.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131nda Brent ve WTI ham petrol, K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesindeki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar nedeniyle y\u00fcksek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemezlik sergiliyor. Bu jeopolitik kaos petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde standart teknik analizi daha az g\u00fcvenilir k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, ani arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla korunmay\u0131 (hedge) tercih ediyoruz. Gece olu\u015fabilecek sert fiyat bo\u015fluklar\u0131na (gap) kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi korumak i\u00e7in i\u015flem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin normalden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda ABD endeksleri jeopolitik risklere ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; S&P 500 ve Dow Jones, A\u011fustos 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda yeni rekorlara do\u011fru bask\u0131 yap\u0131yor. Meta ve Amazon gibi mega \u00f6l\u00e7ekli teknoloji \u015firketlerinden gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 2\u00c7 bilan\u00e7olar bu ralliyi desteklerken, NASDAQ\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 telafi etmesi gereken bir mesafe oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir ekonomik yans\u0131may\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyerek, ana endekslerde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasada deprem: ABD Hazine\u2019sinin 5-10 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k olas\u0131 yen al\u0131m\u0131 JPY\u2019yi u\u00e7urdu, USDJPY\u2019yi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Odak, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 1 trilyon $ T-bill stoku ve sat\u0131\u015f-finansman riskinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t