ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korumas\u0131yla sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda 100,00 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Jeopolitik tansiyon, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik teklifini, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 iptal etmesinin ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7eren g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan diplomasi i\u00e7in \u201cson \u015fans\u201d olarak nitelemesiyle artt\u0131. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer \u015fartlar\u0131 reddederken, General Mohsen Rezaei, ilave bir koridoru dayatmaya y\u00f6nelik herhangi bir yabanc\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn hedef al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar, Temmuz\u2019da faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) verdi\u011fi para politikas\u0131 sinyallerini de fiyatlad\u0131. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 d\u00fczeyinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Buna paralel olarak, Fed yetkilisi Williams\u2019in FXS Speechtracker skoru 10 \u00fczerinden 6 olurken (tarihsel ortalama 10 \u00fczerinden 5,8), %2 enflasyon hedefini yineledi; FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 1,47 puan d\u00fc\u015ferek 146,76\u2019ya geriledi, ancak n\u00f6tr 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. K\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda USD h\u00e2l\u00e2 bask\u0131n konumda; 2022\u2019de k\u00fcresel i\u015flem hacminin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131, yani g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 6,6 trilyon dolar\u0131 olu\u015ftururken; niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE) ve niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (QT) dolar dinamiklerini \u015fekillendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi kritik 100,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi \u00e7evresinde dalgalan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 100 seviyesi \u00f6nemli bir pivot noktas\u0131 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rmanan gerilim g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla tetikleyebilir. Ani sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131yla dolar lehine hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla, USD\u2019nin maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki gerilim, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik bir k\u00fcresel enerji bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan tehdit ediyor. Bu riski de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, Brent veya WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde olas\u0131 ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yakalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ran y\u00f6netiminin yabanc\u0131 gemileri hedef alma tehdidini hayata ge\u00e7irmesi halinde, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131kta h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geni\u015fleme g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
CME FedWatch\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcveni, %2 enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentileri destekledi\u011finden, \u015fahin bir Fed senaryosundan fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlarla bu tablo de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin 146,76 ile n\u00f6tr 100 e\u015fi\u011finin belirgin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6nceki piyasa rallilerinin \u015fu anda daha s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamponlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, yaz sonuna do\u011fru hisse senetlerinde olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Tarihsel veriler, CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) sakin d\u00f6nemlerde bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f seviyelerde seyretti\u011fi zamanlarda, ani jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n hisse risk primlerinde %30 veya daha fazla h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, ABD\u2019nin ba\u015fl\u0131ca hisse endekslerinde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli ve etkili bir savunma katman\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY 100 e\u015fi\u011finde ikinci g\u00fcn y\u00fckseli\u015fte; Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerginli\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %65 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; opsiyonlarla dolar, petrol ve hisse riskine hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52336","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t