CHF\/JPY, nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir \u00dc\u00e7l\u00fc Tepe formasyonunu tamamlad\u0131; fiyat hareketi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) m\u00fcdahalesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce bile hamleyi i\u015faret ediyordu. Odak art\u0131k son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn bir d\u00fczeltme mi oldu\u011funu yoksa bir trende d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (reversal) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde mi geli\u015fti\u011fini anlamaya kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131\u2014200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n do\u011frudan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u2014d\u00fczenli bir sat\u0131\u015ftan ziyade zorunlu tasfiye ve pani\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde temel teknik engel; 195,40\u2019taki %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi ve 196,44\u2019teki haftal\u0131k pivotun da dahil oldu\u011fu bir diren\u00e7 k\u00fcmesi ile 195,00\u2013196,00 band\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki yatay s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 kaps\u0131yor. Piyasa, k\u0131sa vadeli e\u015fik olarak 195,40 \u00e7evresinde \u015fekilleniyor: Cuma \u00f6ncesinde bu seviyenin yeniden \u00fczerine bir kapan\u0131\u015f gelmesi anl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131r; buna kar\u015f\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgenin geri al\u0131namamas\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikteki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi (bias) korur. Ayr\u0131 olarak BOJ\u2019un ad\u0131m\u0131, piyasan\u0131n yeni m\u00fcdahale riskini yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla USD\/JPY ve CHF\/JPY\u2019de keskin hareketlere ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir \u00dc\u00e7l\u00fc Tepe formasyonunun \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u015fahit olduk; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 BOJ\u2019un son para politikas\u0131 hamleleriyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde h\u0131zland\u0131. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn yaln\u0131zca BOJ ad\u0131mlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu savunsa da, teknik grafikler resmi m\u00fcdahale gelmeden \u00f6nce bu sert geri \u00e7ekilmeyi zaten i\u015faret ediyordu. Bu klasik formasyon tespiti, ana ak\u0131m man\u015fetler yerine her zaman fiyat hareketine g\u00fcvenmemiz gerekti\u011finin bir di\u011fer \u00f6rne\u011fi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut tabloda bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tam te\u015fekk\u00fcll\u00fc bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade bir d\u00fczeltme olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; ancak hemen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir teknik duvar bulunuyor. Bizim i\u00e7in kritik \u201ckum \u00e7izgisi\u201d, 195,40\u2019taki %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesi; bu seviye 196,44\u2019teki haftal\u0131k pivotla da yak\u0131ndan \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. CHF\/JPY, 195,40 seviyesini yeniden kazan\u0131p \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapmad\u0131k\u00e7a, g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikteki k\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, paritenin 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n i\u00e7inden adeta \u201cb\u0131\u00e7ak gibi\u201d ge\u00e7ti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da zorunlu tasfiyeler ve panik sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n net bir i\u015fareti. Uluslararas\u0131 \u00d6demeler Bankas\u0131 (BIS) istatistikleri, yen bazl\u0131 carry trade\u2019lerin h\u0131zla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; k\u0131sa yen pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n son haftalarda %40\u2019\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n geriledi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Pozisyon kapatma (short covering) y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bu ani ko\u015fu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda teknik destek seviyelerinin neden \u00e7ok az diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterebildi\u011fini de a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na mevcut seviyelerde bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu kovalamamalar\u0131n\u0131; ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda dipten al\u0131m konusunda erken davranma d\u00fcrt\u00fcs\u00fcne de kap\u0131lmamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Daha rasyonel yakla\u015f\u0131m, sab\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131p piyasan\u0131n 195,40\u2013196,00 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma b\u00f6lgesi \u00e7evresindeki davran\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izlemek. Bu e\u015fi\u011fin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir haftal\u0131k kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcrsek, anl\u0131k ay\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 hafifleyecek ve uzun (long) pozisyonlar i\u00e7in daha g\u00fcvenli bir giri\u015f zemini olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" CHF\/JPY\u2019de nadir \u00dc\u00e7l\u00fc Tepe tamam: BOJ hamlesi \u00f6ncesi sinyal gelmi\u015fti. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama alt\u0131 panik sat\u0131\u015f\u0131. Kritik e\u015fik 195,40\u2013196,00; geri al\u0131nmazsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrer, al\u0131n\u0131rsa d\u00fczeltme senaryosu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t