TD Securities, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) son m\u00fcdahalesi ve olas\u0131 ABD-Japonya koordinasyonuna y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n, USD\/JPY\u2019de daha geni\u015f rejimi de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini belirtti. Kurum, momentumun so\u011fumas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilme ve 153,00\u2019e do\u011fru sarkma alan\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak paritenin bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini kaydetti. Y\u0131l sonu tahmini 159,00 seviyesinde korunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 87 milyar dolar\u0131 bulan iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck MoF aksiyonu sonras\u0131 ve Japonya ile ABD\u2019nin olas\u0131 ortak m\u00fcdahalesine i\u015faret eden man\u015fetlerle birlikte, 2026\u2019da ilk kez 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131na sert bi\u00e7imde geriledi. TD Securities\u2019in trend-takip modeli y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden n\u00f6tre d\u00f6nd\u00fc; ancak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine ge\u00e7mi\u015f de\u011fil. Banka, daha \u015fahin bir Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) duru\u015fu ve yen m\u00fcdahalesinde ABD\u2019nin uzun s\u00fcreli\/do\u011frudan kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 olmadan yak\u0131n vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn 153,00 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde agresif m\u00fcdahalesini, USD\/JPY a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade ge\u00e7ici bir engel olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Pariteyi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamas\u0131na \u00e7eken 87 milyar dolarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hamleye ra\u011fmen, altta yatan piyasa dinamikleri de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, 159,00 seviyesine hedeflenen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131; 153,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131na ise savunmac\u0131 stop seviyeleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, 153,00 civar\u0131nda \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131larak prim geliri elde edilebilir; zira bu seviyenin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. Bu yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadede yenin bir miktar daha g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde \u201cd\u00fc\u015fen b\u0131\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 yakalama\u201d riskine girmeden, mevcut volatiliteden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tarih, para politikas\u0131yla desteklenmeyen tek tarafl\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin uzun vadede nadiren ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2022 ve 2024\u2019teki tarihsel m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde, h\u00fck\u00fcmet tek seferde 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015f; ancak getiri fark\u0131 korunmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in yendeki rahatlama rallileri haftalar i\u00e7inde s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmi\u015fti. Fed ile BoJ aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 4 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, \u201ccarry trade\u201d i\u00e7in temel te\u015fvik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019dan net ve \u015fahin bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ya da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) aktif dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelmedik\u00e7e, yenin yukar\u0131 potansiyelinin belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n bunu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay i\u00e7inde fiyatlayarak USD\/JPY\u2019yi y\u0131l sonu hedefimiz olan 159,00\u2019a yeniden ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev portf\u00f6ylerin net USD\/JPY uzun pozisyonlu kalmas\u0131n\u0131, s\u00f6z konusu ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmenin ise daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 87 milyar dolarl\u0131k MoF m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 200G HO\u2019ya \u00e7ekse de TD\u2019ye g\u00f6re rejim de\u011fi\u015fmedi: momentum so\u011fuyabilir, 153\u2019e sarkar ama \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunur; y\u0131l sonu hedefi 159.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t